pam-universal-fund-series

PAM MFSP 週報 – 24 April 2025

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 06:59:19 GMT

2026/4/24 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年4月24日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別上漲3.48%及3.48%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為14.06%與13.87%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為18.80%與18.04%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

外匯： 貨幣部位的表現呈現分歧。巴西里拉/美元的多頭部位是本月至今（MTD）表現最佳的項目。瑞郎/日圓的多頭部位與美元/離岸人民幣的空頭部位亦帶來了正報酬。然而，美元/韓元的多頭部位依然是最大的單一拖累項目。其他拖累項目還包括歐元/美元、加拿大幣/美元與紐西蘭幣/美元的空頭部位，以及美元/新台幣的多頭部位。

農業： 在農業板塊中，黃豆油與活牛的多頭部位帶來了正向貢獻。負報酬方面，瘦肉豬、芝加哥軟紅冬麥與粗棕櫚油的多頭部位則錄得虧損。

固定收益： 在利率市場方面，Euribor 的空頭部位造成了拖累。

金屬： 高級銅的多頭部位為金屬板塊帶來了亮點。

能源： 能源板塊持續展現韌性。Henry Hub 天然氣的空頭部位創造了部分獲利，而布蘭特原油的多頭部位亦增加了正報酬。

股票： 股市部位為投資組合帶來了正向貢獻。E-mini S&P 500 指數的多頭部位表現穩健。此外，超微半導體（AMD）的多頭部位亦繳出了正報酬。相反地，甲骨文（Oracle corp）的空頭部位則造成了微幅的拖累。股票市場總體而言，美國及台灣市場維持多頭氣焰，持續在四月份繳出亮眼成績。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 24 April 2026

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 06:59:17 GMT

2026/4/24 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 24 April 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 3.48% and 3.48%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 14.06% and 13.87%, while year-to-date returns 18.80% and 18.04%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Foreign Exchange: Currency positions yielded divergent results. A long position in the Brazilian real / usd was the top performer to the MTD performance. A long position in Swiss/yen and a short position in the Usd/offshore renminbi also added positive returns. However, a long position in the Usd/korean won remained the largest single detractor. Other detractors included short positions in the Euro/usd, Canadian dollar / usd, and New zealand dollar / usd, as well as a long position in the Usd/taiwanese dollar.

Agriculturals: Within the agricultural sector, long positions in Soybean oil and Live cattle contributed positively. On the downside, long positions in Lean hogs, Chicago soft red winter wheat, and Crude palm oil posted losses.

Fixed Income: In the interest rates sector, a short position in Euribor acted as a drag.

Metals: A long position in High grade copper was a bright spot for the metals sector.

Energy: The energy sector continued to show resilience. A short position in Henry hub natural gas generated some profit, while a long position in Brent crude oil also added positive return.

Equities: Equity positions contributed positively to the portfolio. A long position in the E-mini s&p 500 index performed solidly. Additionally, a long position in AMD also delivered a positive return. Conversely, a short position in Oracle corp acted as a minor drag. Overall in the equity market, the U.S. and Taiwan markets maintained their bullish momentum, continuing to deliver stellar performance in April.

The report is prepared for general information purpose only. Progressive Global Investment Advisor Limited has provided adequate opinions and news based on reliable information or sources, but does not guarantee the completeness of the source of data. Please contact us immediately if there is any omission or oversight, to which Progressive Global Investment Advisor or any of its affiliates, including any of its directors and employees shall not bear any legal liabilities. Should investors make investment based on the report, it should bear all profit and loss. This report is intended solely for the recipient. Without consent of the Company, it may not be copied, duplicated, passed on or disclosed to any other person.

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 17 April 2026

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 06:39:14 GMT

2026/4/17 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 17 April 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 2.33% and 2.33%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 10.22% and 10.04%, while year-to-date returns 14.81% and 14.07%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Foreign Exchange: Currency positions yielded varied results and were a primary source of volatility. Positive contributions came from a long position in the Brazilian real/usd, a long position in Swiss/yen, and a short position in the Usd/offshore renminbi. However, a long position in the Usd/korean won was the largest single detractor for the period. Short positions in the Indian rupee/usd and Euro/usd further weighed on sector performance.

Agriculturals: The agricultural sector showed divergent results. A long position in Live cattle was a top performer. On the downside, a long position in Lean hogs posed significant losses. Other detractors included long positions in Crude palm oil, European rapeseed, and KC hard red winter wheat.

Fixed Income: In the interest rates sector, long positions in the 3-month sonia and Us 10-yr t-note delivered positive returns. Conversely, a short position in Euribor acted as a drag.

Metals: The metals sector provided positive attribution to the portfolio. Long positions in Platinum and High grade copper were the main drivers of performance in this sector.

Energy: A short position in Dutch ttf natural gas month delivered positive return to the weekly performance.

Equities: A long position in the E-mini S&P 500 index rose, delivering a return. Stocks in the U.S. and Taiwan also remained strong, which push our MTD and YTD return higher.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 17 April 2025

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 06:39:12 GMT

2026/4/17 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年4月17日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別上漲2.33%及2.33%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為10.22%與10.04%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為14.81%與14.07%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

外匯： 貨幣市場部位表現好壞參半，並且是主要的波動來源。正報酬來自於巴西里拉/美元的多頭部位、瑞郎/日圓的多頭部位，以及美元/離岸人民幣的空頭部位。然而，美元/韓圜的多頭部位是本期最大的單一拖累項目。印度盧比/美元與歐元/美元的空頭部位進一步拖累了該板塊的表現。

農業： 農業市場部位表現分歧。活牛的多頭部位表現最佳。負報酬方面，瘦肉豬的多頭部位造成了顯著的虧損。其他拖累項目還包括粗棕櫚油、歐洲油菜籽與堪薩斯硬紅冬麥的多頭部位。

固定收益： 在利率市場方面，3 個月期 Sonia 利率與美國 10 年期公債的多頭部位帶來了正報酬。相反地，Euribor的空頭部位則造成了拖累。

金屬： 金屬板塊為投資組合提供了正報酬。鉑金與高級銅的多頭部位金屬板塊的報酬來源。

能源： 荷蘭 TTF 天然氣近月合約的空頭部位為本週績效帶來了正報酬。

股票： E-mini S&P 500 指數的多頭部位呈現上漲並帶來報酬。美國與台灣股市亦保持強勁，進而推升了我們本月至今（MTD）與年度至今（YTD）報酬率。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 10 April 2026

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 06:12:43 GMT

2026/4/10 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 10 April 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 5.72% and 5.72%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 7.71% and 7.54%, while year-to-date returns 12.19% and 11.47%. The year-to-date return of MFSP jumped to a double-digits.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Foreign Exchange: Currency positions yielded varied results. Positive contributions came from a long position in the Brazilian real/usd, a long position in Swiss/yen, and a short position in the Usd/offshore renminbi. A long position in Euro/yen also gained. However, a long position in the Usd/korean won was the largest single detractor for the period. Short positions in the Indian rupee/usd and Euro/usd further weighed on sector performance.

Agriculturals: The agricultural sector showed divergent results. A long position in Live cattle was the top-performing market overall. Feeder cattle delivered positive return. On the downside, a long position in Crude palm oil posed some losses. Other detractors included long positions in KC hard red winter wheat and Chicago soft red winter wheat, as well as short positions in Soybean meal and long positions in Soybean oil.

Fixed Income: In the interest rates sector, a short position in the Japanese 10-yr gvt. Bond delivered positive return.

Metals: The metals sector provided positive attribution. Long positions in Platinum and High grade copper are the main driver.

Equities: A long position in the Euro stoxx 50 index rose as stocks in Taiwan and the U.S. delivered significant return after severe conflicts between Iran and the U.S. Global equities gradually absorb the short term impact from the war.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 10 April 2025

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 06:12:42 GMT

2026/4/10 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年4月10日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別上漲5.72%及5.72%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為7.71%與7.54%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為12.19%與11.47%。MFSP今年以來報酬正式躍升至雙位數。

板塊分析與績效回顧

外匯： 貨幣部位的表現好壞參半。正報酬主要來自於巴西里拉/美元的多頭部位、瑞郎/日圓的多頭部位，以及美元/離岸人民幣的空頭部位。歐元/日圓的多頭部位亦呈現上漲。然而，美元/韓元的多頭部位是本期間最大的虧損來源。印度盧比/美元與歐元/美元的空頭部位進一步拖累了該板塊的表現。

農業： 農業板塊表現呈現分歧。活牛的多頭部位是整體表現最佳的單一市場；飼養牛亦帶來了正報酬。負面方面，粗棕櫚油的多頭部位造成了部分虧損。其他虧損來源還包括堪薩斯硬紅冬麥與芝加哥軟紅冬麥的多頭部位，以及黃豆粉的空頭部位與黃豆油的多頭部位。

固定收益： 在利率市場方面，日本 10 年期公債的空頭部位帶來了正報酬。

金屬： 金屬板塊為投資組合提供了正報酬。鉑金與高級銅的多頭部位是主要的獲利驅動力。

股票： 歐洲 Stoxx 50 指數的多頭部位呈現上漲，同時台灣與美國股市在經歷美國與伊朗之間的嚴重衝突後，繳出了顯著的報酬。全球股市正逐漸消化這場戰爭所帶來的短期衝擊。

PAM MFSP 週報 – 3 April 2025

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:21:53 GMT

2026/4/3 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年4月3日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別上漲2.51%及2.34%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為1.88%與1.72%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為6.12%與5.44%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

固定收益： 利率板塊持續是本月拖累投資組合績效的主要因素，主因在於北美與英國債券的部位。加拿大隔夜附買回利率與美國10年期公債的多頭部位，加上 3個月期 Sonia 利率與英國長期公債的空頭部位，為最大的單一拖累項目。然而，澳洲與歐洲債券的空頭部位提供了一些緩衝，其中澳洲3年期公債與歐洲的Eurobund均帶來了正向貢獻。

金屬： 金屬板塊持續面臨逆風。黃金的多頭部位是主要的拖累來源。鉑金的多頭部位亦對該板塊的負面表現造成了影響。

能源： 能源板塊延續其強勁表現，主要受惠於石油產品的廣泛多頭佈局。布蘭特原油、低硫柴油、紐約港超低硫柴油與 WTI 輕甜原油均繳出了強健的獲利。

外匯： 此板塊是正報酬的主要驅動力，顯著受惠於特定的貨幣趨勢。印度盧比/美元的空頭部位是整體表現最佳的單一市場。美元/韓元的多頭部位亦獲利豐厚。

農業： 此板塊表現好壞參半。活牛與黃豆油的多頭部位表現良好。相反地，11 號糖的空頭部位則是顯著的拖累項目，其虧損對投資組合造成了壓力。

股票： 股票板塊方面，台灣股市稍微下跌，美國股市則是強勁反彈。在三月MFSP奮力對抗伊朗與美國的衝突，並且擊敗了主要的指標指數。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 3 April 2026

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:21:51 GMT

2026/4/3 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 3 April 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 2.51% and 2.34%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 1.88% and 1.72%, while year-to-date returns 6.12% and 5.44%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Foreign Exchange: This sector was a primary driver of positive returns, benefitting significantly from specific currency trends. A short position in the Indian Rupee/USD (SGX) was the top-performing market overall. A long position in the USD/Korean Won was also highly profitable.

Energy: The Energy sector sustained its strong performance, driven by broad long exposure across petroleum products. Brent Crude Oil, Low Sulphur Gasoil, NY Harbor ULSD, and WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil all delivered robust gains.

Agriculturals: The sector saw mixed results. Long positions in Live Cattle and Soybean Oil performed well. Conversely, a short position in Sugar No. 11 was a significant detractor, weighing on the portfolio with a loss.

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector remained a substantial drag on the portfolio for the month, primarily due to positions in North American and UK debt. Long positions in the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate and US 10-yr T-note, alongside short positions in 3-month SONIA and Long Gilt, were the largest individual detractors. However, short positions in Australian and European debt provided some offset, with the Australian 3-yr Govt. Bond and Eurobund contributing positively.

Metals: The Metals sector continued to face headwinds. A long position in Gold was a major detractor. A long position in Platinum also contributed to the sector's negative performance.

Equities: Stocks in Taiwan posed little losses as the U.S. stocks rebounded significantly. During March, MFSP conquered the turmoil between U.S. and Iran, which beat our main benchmark.

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 27 March 2026

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:19:43 GMT

2026/3/27 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 27 March 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 1.16% and 1.16%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -3.38% and -3.54%, while year-to-date returns 3.53% and 3.03%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector remained a substantial drag on the portfolio of the month, primarily due to long positions in North American and UK debt. However, short positions in Australian and European debt provided some offset, with Austr. 3-yr gvt. bond and Eurobund contributing positively.

Metals: The Metals sector continued to face headwinds. A long position in Gold was a major detractor. A long position in Platinum also contributed to the sector's negative performance.

Energy: The Energy sector continued its strong performance, driven by broad long exposure to petroleum products. Brent crude oil, Low sulphur gasoil, Ny harbor ulsd, and Wti light sweet crude oil all delivered robust gains.

Foreign Exchange: This sector was a primary driver of positive returns, benefitting significantly from specific currency trends. A short position in Indian rupee/usd (sgx) was the top performing market overall. A long position in Usd/korean won was also highly profitable.

Agriculturals: The sector saw mixed results. Long positions in Live cattle and Soybean oil performed well. Conversely, a short position in Sugar no. 11 was a significant detractor.

Equities: Stocks in Taiwan delivered strong return during turmoil between Iran and the U.S. U.S. stocks on the other hand, slightly decreased.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 27 March 2025

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:19:41 GMT

2026/3/27 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年3月27日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別上漲1.16%及1.16%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為-3.38%與-3.54%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為3.53%與3.03%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

固定收益： 利率市場是本月拖累投資組合績效的主要因素，主因在於北美與英國債券的多頭部位。然而，澳洲與歐洲債務的空頭部位提供了一些緩衝抵銷的作用，其中澳洲3年期公債（Austr. 3-yr gvt. bond）與歐洲的Eurobund均帶來了正報酬。

金屬： 金屬市場持續面臨逆風。黃金的多頭部位是主要的拖累來源。鉑金的多頭部位亦對該板塊的負面表現造成了影響。

能源： 能源市場延續其強勁表現，主要受惠於石油產品的廣泛多頭佈局。布蘭特原油、低硫柴油、紐約港超低硫柴油與WTI輕甜原油均繳出強健的獲利。

外匯： 外匯市場為基金主要獲利來源，並顯著受惠於特定的貨幣趨勢。印度盧比/美元的空頭部位是整體表現最佳的單一市場。美元/韓元的多頭部位亦獲利豐厚。

農業： 農產品市場表現好壞參半。活牛與黃豆油的多頭部位表現良好。相反地，11 號糖的空頭部位則是顯著的虧損來源。

股票： 儘管美國與伊朗之間局勢動盪，台灣股市仍繳出了強勁的報酬。另一方面，美股表現則微幅下滑。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 20 March 2026

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 06:24:29 GMT

2026/3/20 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 20 March 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of -0.49% and -0.49%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -4.49% and -4.64%, while year-to-date returns 2.35% and 1.85%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector remained a substantial drag on the portfolio. Long positions in North American and UK debt suffered the most significant losses, with the Canadian overnight repo rate, Long gilt, Us 10-yr t-note, and 3-month sonia being the largest individual detractors. Other long positions like Us 5-yr t-note and 3-month saron also recorded notable losses.

Metals: The Metals sector faced considerable headwinds this week. A previously profitable long position in Gold reversed sharply, becoming a major detractor. A long position in Platinum also contributed to the sector's negative performance.

Energy: The Energy sector continued to deliver strong positive contributions, with broad long exposure across petroleum-related products proving highly rewarding. Brent crude oil was the top performer across all markets. Low sulphur gasoil, Ny harbor ulsd, and Wti light sweet crude oil also posted robust gains.

Foreign Exchange: This sector delivered positive returns driven by specific currency trends. A long position in Usd/korean won was a top performer. A short position in Indian rupee / usd (sgx) also added significant profits.

Agriculturals: The sector experienced significant downward pressure. A short position in Sugar no. 11 was a major detractor. Additionally, a long position in Lean hogs weighed on the portfolio with a loss.

Equities: Stocks in Taiwan delivered strong return during turmoil between Iran and the U.S. U.S. stocks on the other hand performed flat.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 20 March 2025

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 06:24:26 GMT

2026/3/20 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年3月20日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別下跌0.49%及0.49%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為-4.49%與-4.64%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為2.35%與1.85%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

固定收益： 利率板塊持續對整體投資組合造成顯著的拖累。北美與英國債券的多頭部位遭遇最嚴重的虧損，其中加拿大隔夜附買回利率（Canadian overnight repo rate）、英國長期公債（Long gilt）、美國 10 年期公債（US 10-yr T-note）以及 3 個月期 Sonia 利率為最大的單一拖累項目。此外，美國 5 年期公債與 3 個月期 Saron 利率的多頭部位亦錄得顯著虧損。

金屬： 金屬板塊本週面臨巨大逆風。先前獲利豐厚的黃金多頭部位出現急轉直下的反轉，成為主要的拖累來源。鉑金的多頭部位也對該板塊的負面表現造成了影響。

能源： 能源板塊持續帶來強勁的正向貢獻，廣泛佈局於石油相關產品的多頭部位帶來了豐厚的回報。布蘭特原油是所有市場中表現最佳的標的。低硫柴油、紐約港超低硫柴油與 WTI 輕甜原油亦繳出了強健的漲幅。

外匯市場： 受惠於特定貨幣的趨勢，此板塊帶來了正報酬。做多美元兌韓元的部位表現最為亮眼；而放空印度盧比/美元也為投資組合挹注了顯著的獲利。

農業： 此板塊承受了顯著的下行壓力。11 號糖的空頭部位是主要的拖累來源。此外，瘦肉豬的多頭部位也因虧損而對投資組合造成了壓力。

股票： 儘管美國與伊朗之間的局勢動盪，台灣股市仍在此期間繳出了強勁的報酬。另一方面，美股的表現則相對平緩。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 13 March 2026

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 05:51:30 GMT

2026/3/13 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 13 March 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 0.70% and 0.70%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -4.32% and -4.47%, while year-to-date returns 2.85% and 2.36%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector continued to be the primary drag on the portfolio's performance. Broad long positions in global sovereign debt and short-term rates suffered significant losses, with the Canadian overnight repo rate, 3-month sonia, Long gilt, and Us 10-yr t-note acting as the largest individual detractors. Long positions in 3-month saron, Euribor, Us 5-yr t-note, and 3-month sofr also weighed heavily on returns.

Metals: The metals sector faced headwinds, with a long position in Platinum acting as a detractor.

Energy: The Energy sector delivered strong positive contributions. Broad long exposure across petroleum-related products was highly rewarding. Brent crude oil and WTI light sweet crude oil posted robust gains, while Ny harbor ulsd and Low sulphur gasoil also delivered notable positive returns.

Foreign Exchange: This sector delivered positive returns driven by specific currency pairs. A long position in Usd/korean won was the top performer. Short positions in Indian rupee/usd (sgx) and Japanese yen/usd also added to the positive results.

Agriculturals: The sector showed strength, driven primarily by long positions in the soy complex. Soybean oil was a top performer, while a long position in Soybeans also rose. On the downside, a short position in Sugar no. 11 acted as a minor drag.

Equities: Conflict between Iran and the U.S. relieved. Longs in U.S. and Taiwan rebounded after a turmoil week.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 13 March 2025

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 05:51:26 GMT

2026/3/13 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年3月13日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來0.70%及0.70%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為-4.32%與-4.47%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為2.85%與2.36%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

固定收益： 利率板塊持續是拖累投資組合績效的主要因素。全球主權債券與短期利率的廣泛多頭部位遭受顯著虧損，其中加拿大隔夜附買回利率（Canadian overnight repo rate）、3 個月期 Sonia 利率（3-month sonia）、英國長期公債（Long gilt）與美國 10 年期國庫券（Us 10-yr t-note）為最大的虧損來源。3 個月期 Saron 利率、Euribor、美國 5 年期國庫券（Us 5-yr t-note）與 3 個月期 SOFR 利率（3-month sofr）的多頭部位亦帶來負報酬。

金屬： 金屬板塊面臨逆風，鉑金的多頭部位帶來虧損。

能源： 能源板塊帶來強勁的正報酬。石油相關產品的全面多頭佈局獲利豐厚。布蘭特原油與 WTI 輕甜原油繳出強健的獲利，而紐約港超低硫柴油與低硫柴油亦帶來了顯著的正報酬。

外匯： 外匯市場受惠於強勢美元，帶來了正報酬。美元/韓元的多頭部位表現最佳。印度盧比/美元與日圓/美元的空頭部位亦帶來正報酬。

農業： 此板塊表現強勁，主要由黃豆複合產品的多頭部位所驅動。黃豆油表現最佳，而黃豆的多頭部位亦呈現上漲。另一方面，11 號糖的空頭部位則造成了輕微的損失。

股票： 美國與伊朗之間的衝突有所緩解。美國與台灣市場的多頭部位在經歷一週的動盪後迎來反彈。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 6 March 2026

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 02:30:02 GMT

2026/3/6 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 6 March 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of -4.98% and -5.14%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -4.98% and -5.14%, while year-to-date returns 2.14% and 1.64%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector was the primary drag on the portfolio. Broad long positions in global sovereign debt and short-term rates suffered significant losses, with the Canadian overnight repo rate, Long gilt, 3-month sonia, and Us 10-yr t-note acting as the largest individual detractors. Long positions in 3-month saron, Euribor, and Euro-schatz also weighed heavily on returns. Conversely, short positions in European debt provided some cushion, with the Eurobund and Eurobuxl contributing positively.

Metals: The Metals sector showed divergent results. A long position in Aluminium performed well, but this was largely offset by a long position in Platinum.

Energy: The Energy sector delivered strong positive contributions. Broad long exposure across petroleum-related products was highly rewarding. Low sulphur gasoil and Ny harbor ulsd both delivered positive return, while Brent crude oil and Wti light sweet crude oil also posted robust gains.

Foreign Exchange: Long position in Usd/korean won was the top individual performing market for the period.

Agriculturals: The sector showed strength, driven primarily by long positions in the soy complex. Soybean oil was a top performer, while a long position in Soybeans also performed well.

Equities: Longs in U.S. and Taiwan posed significant losses of the week. Conflict between Iran and the U.S. imposed short term influence to global markets.

Conclusion and outlooks: The ongoing developments in the Middle East conflict are not only affecting the supply-demand balance in energy markets, but the resulting imported inflationary pressures may also disrupt the future rate-cut paths of central banks globally. This is potentially one of the underlying reasons for the headwinds experienced by global fixed-income markets and the significant volatility in government bond yields this week. In the face of a rapidly changing political and economic landscape, the team will continue to leverage a systematic trend-following strategy to closely monitor geopolitical developments and their ripple effects across various asset classes, maintaining a high degree of flexibility to robustly navigate future market volatility.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 6 March 2025

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 02:30:00 GMT

2026/3/6 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年3月6日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來-4.98%及-5.14%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為-4.98%與-5.14%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為2.14%與1.64%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

固定收益： 利率板塊是拖累投資組合績效的主要因素。全球主權債務與短期利率的廣泛多頭部位遭受大幅虧損，其中加拿大隔夜附買回利率、英國長期公債、3 個月期 Sonia 利率與美國 10 年期國庫券為最大的單一拖累項目。3個月期 Saron 利率、Euribor 與歐洲 Euro-schatz 的多頭部位亦嚴重拖累了回報。相反地，歐洲債務的空頭部位提供了一些緩衝，歐洲的 Euro-bund 與 Euro-buxl 的空頭部位均帶來了正報酬。

金屬： 金屬板塊表現分歧。鋁的多頭部位表現良好，但這部分主要被鉑金的多頭部位虧損所抵銷。

能源： 能源板塊帶來強勁的報酬。石油相關產品的全面多頭佈局獲利豐厚。低硫柴油與紐約港超低硫柴油均帶來正報酬，而布蘭特原油與 WTI輕甜原油亦繳出強健的獲利。

外匯： 美元/韓元的多頭部位是本期間表現最佳的單一市場。

農業： 此板塊表現強勁，主要由黃豆複合產品的多頭部位所驅動。黃豆油表現最佳，而黃豆的多頭部位表現亦佳。

股票： 美國與台灣市場的多頭部位在本週造成顯著虧損。伊朗與美國之間的衝突對全球市場產生了短期的衝擊。

總結與市場展望： 近期中東衝突的持續發展，不僅牽動著能源市場的供需平衡，其所帶來的輸入性通膨壓力亦可能干擾全球各國央行未來的降息路徑。這也潛在地解釋了為何本週全球固定收益市場會面臨逆風，以及公債殖利率為何會出現大幅波動。面對瞬息萬變的政經局勢，團隊將持續透過系統化的趨勢追蹤策略，嚴密監控地緣政治發展及其對各類資產的連鎖效應，並保持高度的靈活性，以穩健應對未來的市場波動。

Oil prices cool 30% rally on G7 emergency reserve talks; Iran supply fears mount

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 07:50:02 GMT

9 March 2026

Investing.com: Oil prices tempered early gains on Monday after a report said the G7 countries will discuss a possible joint release of emergency reserves

Summary

Oil prices skyrocketed on Monday, March 9, 2026 , with Brent crude and WTI both surging to peaks around $111–$114 per barrel. Thi s represents a massive intraday jump of over 20%, marking the highest levels seen since 2022.

Key Drivers of the Price Spike

Military Escalation: The conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran entered its tenth day following a weekend of intensified air strikes targeting Iranian oil facilities in Tehran and the Alborz province.
Strait of Hormuz Closure: Fears have intensified as Iran has effectiv ely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a cri tical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes.
Production Cuts: Major Middle Eastern producers, including the UAE and Kuwait, have begun reducing output as local storage reaches capacity due to the inability to export crude through disrupted shipping lanes.

Economic and Political Context

Inflationary Fears: A nalysts from ANZ and Goldman Sachs warn that the situation has exceeded "worst-case scenarios," with potential for Brent to hit $150/bbl if the blockade persists. This spike is expected to drive up global fuel prices and reignite inflationary pressures.
U.S. Stance: President Donald Trump stated that high energy prices are a "very small price to pay" for long-term safety and the neutralization of the Iranian nuclear threat, suggesting that prices will drop once the military objectives are met.

Market Impact: The energy shock has caused a sharp sell-off in Asia-Pacific stock markets and redirected oil tankers previously bound for Europe toward Asian buyers who are bidding up prices to secure dwindling supplies.

G7 展開緊急儲備釋放談判，油價 30% 漲勢降溫；唯伊朗供應疑慮持續升溫

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 07:49:59 GMT

2026/03/09 新聞評論

Investing.com: Oil prices tempered early gains on Monday after a report said the G7 countries will discuss a possible joint release of emergency reserves

摘要

2026 年 3 月 9 日，全球原油價格在週一早盤交易中大幅飆升。 布蘭特原油（Brent） 一度跳漲超過 20%，觸及每桶 111.04 美元 的高點，而 WTI 原油 漲幅也相當顯著，市場情緒極度不安。

核心驅動因素

軍事行動升級： 美國與以色列對伊朗的軍事衝突進入第十天。週末期間，空襲首次擊中了德黑蘭及阿爾伯茲省（Alborz ）的伊朗石油設施，直接導致供應中斷風險升溫。
荷姆茲海峽封鎖： 隨著伊朗實際上關閉了全球最重要的石油過境點——荷姆茲海峽（全球約 20% 石油供應經此運輸），市場對長期斷供的擔憂達到頂點。
產油國減產： 由於海峽關閉導致原油無法運出，阿拉伯聯合大公國（UAE）、科威特及伊拉克等周邊主要產油國因儲油空間飽和，已開始被迫削減產量。

經濟與政治影響

分析師警告： 澳盛銀行（ANZ）與高盛（Goldman Sachs）指出，目前情勢已超過「最壞情況」。高盛警告，若封鎖持續，布蘭特原油可能在月底前觸及每桶 150 美元，這將引發全球性的通膨衝擊。
川普政府表態： 美國總統川普（Donald Trump）在社群平台上表示，雖然油價處於高位，但這是徹底消除伊朗核威脅、確保美國與世界長久安全所必須支付的「微小代價」。他預測一旦軍事目標達成，油價將迅速回落。
市場反應： 能源價格的劇烈波動引發亞太地區股市集體下挫，市場資金正迅速轉向黃金等避險資產。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 27 February 2026

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 06:06:17 GMT

2026/2/27 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 27 February 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 2.71% and 2.71%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 3.72% and 3.55%, while year-to-date returns 7.44% and 7.09%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The Metals sector showed divergent results. A long position in Gold remained highly profitable. However, the sector faced headwinds as a short position in Tsi iron ore cfr china futures acted as a significant detractor.

Energy: A short position in Henry hub natural gas was a key contributor to the MTD performance. Conversely, a short position in Eu co2 allowance acted as a detractor.

Foreign Exchange: S hort position in Indian rupee/usd (sgx) acted as a significant drag during the week.

Agriculturals: This sector delivered notable positive returns in soft commodities and the soy complex, while grains and livestock struggled. Short positions in London cocoa and Cocoa were highly profitable. A long position in Soybean oil also performed well. On the downside, short positions in Soybean meal and Milling wheat, along with a long position in Live cattle weighed on the portfolio.

Equities: Longs in U.S. and Taiwan delivered strong return of the week. While longs in the Vaneck vectors jr. gold miners ETF also contributed positively to the period's performance.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 27 February 2025

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 06:06:15 GMT

2026/2/27 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年2月27日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來2.71%及2.71%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為3.72%與3.55%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為7.44%與7.09%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 金屬板塊表現分歧。黃金的多頭部位持續帶來豐厚獲利。然而，該板塊亦面臨逆風，TSI中國鐵礦砂CFR期貨的空頭部位成為顯著的拖累項目。

能源： Henry Hub 天然氣的空頭部位為本月主要的獲利貢獻來源。相反地，歐盟碳排放配額（EU co2 allowance）的空頭部位則對整體績效造成拖累。

外匯： 印度盧比/美元（SGX）的空頭部位在本週造成了顯著的拖累。

農業： 此板塊在軟性商品與黃豆相關產品中帶來了顯著的正報酬，但穀物與牲畜市場則陷入掙扎。倫敦可可與標準可可的空頭部位獲利豐厚；黃豆油的多頭部位表現亦佳。負面方面，黃豆粉與製粉小麥的空頭部位，加上活牛的多頭部位，均對投資組合帶來了壓力。

股票： 美國與台灣市場的多頭部位在本週繳出了強勁的報酬。同時，VanEck小型黃金礦業ETF的多頭部位亦對本週績效產生了正向貢獻。

NVIDIA GTC 2026 前瞻

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 06:24:58 GMT

2026/02/26 新聞評論

Digitimes: NVIDIA黃仁勳金句連發　神祕新晶片、矽光子、電力估成GTC三焦點

摘要

NVIDIA 年度大會 GTC 2026 即將於 3 月中旬盛大登場！執行長黃仁勳不僅將對「AI 泡沫疑慮」信心喊話，更預計宣布 Vera Rubin 平台 AI 晶片已進入量產，宣告 AI 運算正式邁向「思考與推理」的全新時代。

針對本次 GTC 大會，產業界預估將有以下三大核心看點：

看點一：發布「震驚世界」的神祕晶片，3D IC 或成焦點

黃仁勳日前預告將推出效能與設計大躍進的神祕晶片。市場推測，除了可能完整揭露採用台積電 N3P 製程、導入小晶片（Chiplet）與 HBM4 記憶體的 Rubin 架構強化版細節，或預告 2028 年 Feynman 架構之外；更有矽谷工程師分析，這款神祕晶片極可能是在 GPU 頂部堆疊記憶體的 3D IC 技術。

看點二：2026 定調為「矽光子商轉元年」

突破傳輸瓶頸 AI 資料中心的限制已從算力轉移至「資料傳輸效率」。NVIDIA 全力推動以光訊號取代電訊號的「矽光子技術」，不僅能提升頻寬，更能大幅降低能耗與散熱壓力。預期 GTC 將釋出更清晰的導入時程藍圖。台灣半導體聚落（如擴建中的竹北實驗室）與台積電的緊密合作，已成為 NVIDIA 布局矽光子與 CPO（共同封裝光學）產業鏈的最重要基地。

看點三：算力戰升級為能源戰

「電力」決定 AI 能走多遠「影響 AI 發展的將不是晶片，而是電力。」黃仁勳近期多次強調，AI 競賽已進入系統工程與能源競爭階段，穩定且低成本的電力供應將決定部署速度與國家競爭力。他甚至表態核能是非常好的選擇，呼籲各界正視能源問題。預期「能源挑戰」將是本次 GTC 各方高度關注的主軸議題。

總結

從晶片架構的突破、光電融合的基礎設施升級，再到宏觀的能源戰略佈局，NVIDIA 正在為下一世代的 AI 發展制定全方位的標準與藍圖。

NVIDIA GTC 2026 Preview

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 06:24:56 GMT

26 February 2026

Digitimes: Jensen Huang Teases Three Major Highlights: A Mysterious Chip, Silicon Photonics Commercialization, and the AI Power War

Summary

NVIDIA's annual GTC 2026 is set to kick off in mid-March! CEO Jensen Huang will not only address "AI bubble" concerns with a message of confidence, but is also expected to announce that the Vera Rubin platform AI chips have entered mass production, marking a new era of AI computing moving toward "thinking and reasoning."

Industry experts anticipate the following three core highlights for this year's GTC:

Highlight 1: A "World-Shocking" Mysterious Chip, with 3D IC in the Spotlight Jensen Huang recently teased an upcoming mysterious chip with a massive leap in performance and design. Market speculation suggests that, aside from fully revealing the details of an enhanced Rubin architecture (utilizing TSMC's N3P process, Chiplet integration, and HBM4 memory) or teasing the 2028 Feynman architecture, a Silicon Valley engineer analyzes that this mysterious chip is highly likely to feature 3D IC technology that stacks memory on top of the GPU.
Highlight 2: 2026 Set as the "First Year of Silicon Photonics Commercialization" The bottleneck for AI data centers has shifted from computing power to "data transmission efficiency." NVIDIA is heavily promoting "Silicon Photonics technology," which replaces electrical signals with optical ones to increase bandwidth while significantly reducing energy consumption and cooling pressure. GTC is expected to unveil a clearer roadmap for its implementation. Taiwan's semiconductor cluster (such as the expanding Zhubei laboratory) and its close collaboration with TSMC have become NVIDIA's most crucial base for building the Silicon Photonics and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) supply chain.
Highlight 3: Computing War Upgrades to an Energy War—"Electricity" Determines How Far AI Can Go "What limits AI development won't be chips, but electricity." Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the AI race has entered a phase of system engineering and energy competition. A stable and low-cost power supply will dictate deployment speed and national competitiveness. He even stated that nuclear energy is a highly viable option, urging all sectors to face the energy issue squarely. The "energy challenge" is expected to be a dominant focal point during this GTC.

Commentary

From breakthroughs in chip architecture and infrastructure upgrades featuring optoelectronic integration to a macro-level energy strategic layout, NVIDIA is establishing comprehensive standards and a blueprint for the next generation of AI development.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 20 February 2025

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 06:33:38 GMT

2026/2/20 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年2月6日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來1.94%及1.94%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為0.98%與0.82%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為4.61%與4.27%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 黃金的多頭部位維持豐厚獲利。然而，該板塊亦面臨逆風，TSI中國鐵礦砂CFR期貨的多頭部位成為最大的單一拖累項目。

能源： 能源板塊提供了本期間表現最佳的單一市場。Henry Hub天然氣的空頭部位為本月至今績效最大的貢獻來源。相反地，歐盟碳排放配額與鹿特丹煤炭API 2的空頭部位，以及北歐電力年度期貨的多頭部位則造成了拖累。

外匯： 此板塊表現好壞參半。墨西哥披索/美元的多頭部位帶來了正報酬。然而，印度盧比/美元的空頭部位則造成顯著拖累。

農業： 此板塊帶來了顯著的正報酬，特別是在軟性商品與牲畜市場。倫敦可可與可可的空頭部位獲利豐厚。活牛與黃豆油的多頭部位表現亦佳。穀物與其他黃豆複合產品的空頭部位則拖累了投資組合，黃豆粉、製粉小麥與芝加哥軟紅冬小麥均錄得虧損。

股票： 台灣與美國的淨多頭部位帶來了正報酬，而VanEck黃金礦業ETF的多頭部位亦呈現上漲。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 20 February 2026

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 06:33:36 GMT

2026/2/20 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 20 February 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 1.94% and 1.94%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 0.98% and 0.82%, while year-to-date returns 4.61% and 4.27%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The Metals sector showed divergent results. A long position in Gold remained highly profitable. However, the sector faced headwinds as a long position in Tsi iron ore cfr china futures acted as the largest single detractor.

Energy: The Energy sector provided the top individual performing market for the period. A short position in Henry hub natural gas was the largest single contributor to the MTD performance. Conversely, short positions in Eu co2 allowance and Coal api 2 (rotterdam), along with a long position in Nordic base yearly future acted as detractors.

Foreign Exchange: The sector delivered mixed results. A long position in Mexican peso/usd delivered positive return. However, a short position in Indian rupee/usd (sgx) acted as a significant drag.

Agriculturals: This sector delivered notable positive returns, particularly in soft commodities and livestock. Short positions in London cocoa and Cocoa were highly profitable. A long position in Live cattle and Soybean oil also performed well. On the downside, short positions in grains and other soy complex components weighed on the portfolio, with losses in Soybean meal, Milling wheat, and Chicago soft red winter wheat.

Equities: Net long positions in Taiwan and the U.S. delivered positive return while long position in the Vaneck vectors gold miners ETF also rose.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 6 February 2025

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 06:12:13 GMT

2026/2/6 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年2月6日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來-0.94%及-1.10%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為-0.94%與-1.10%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為2.61%與2.28%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 相較於前幾週，金屬板塊本週表現呈現分歧。黃金的多頭部位維持獲利。相反地，其他多頭部位面臨逆風，其中TSI中國鐵礦砂CFR期貨帶來較為顯著的虧損。大阪黃金、大阪鉑金與錫亦錄得虧損。

能源： 能源板塊為本期間表現最佳的單一市場。Henry Hub天然氣的空頭部位為最大的單一貢獻來源。然而，歐洲能源市場的多頭部位對績效造成輕微拖累，歐盟碳排放配額與北歐電力年度期貨均錄得虧損。

外匯： 此板塊受惠於特定貨幣的驅動，帶來了正報酬。美元/韓元的多頭部位與日圓/美元的空頭部位為主要貢獻者。瑞士法郎/日圓的多頭部位表現亦佳。然而，印度盧比/美元的空頭部位則造成顯著拖累。

農業： 牲畜市場表現強勁，而穀物市場則表現疲憊。瘦肉豬與活牛的多頭部位均獲利。製粉小麥的空頭部位亦帶來正報酬。黃豆複合產品的空頭部位拖累了投資組合，黃豆與黃豆粉均錄得虧損。

股票： 股票市場中，美國股市及台灣股市皆表現下跌。Paypal Holdings的空頭部位帶來正報酬，而Stoxx600食品飲料指數的空頭部位則造成部分虧損。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 6 February 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 06:09:17 GMT

2026/2/6 Weekly Update

Performance Overview

As of 6 February 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of -0.94% and -1.10%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -0.94% and -1.10%, while year-to-date returns 2.61% and 2.28%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The Metals sector showed divergent results compared to previous weeks. A long position in Gold remained profitable. Conversely, other long positions faced headwinds, with Tsi iron ore cfr china futures acting as a notable detractor. Losses were also recorded in Gold (osaka), Platinum (osaka), and Tin.

Energy: The Energy sector provided the top individual performing market for the period. A short position in Henry hub natural gas was the largest single contributor. However, long positions in European energy markets weighed slightly on results, with Eu co2 allowance and Nordic base yearly future recording losses.

Foreign Exchange: This sector delivered positive returns driven by specific currency pairs. A long position in Usd/korean won and a short position in Japanese yen/usd were key contributors. A long position in Swiss/yen also performed well. However, a short position in Indian rupee / usd (sgx) acted as a significant drag.

Agriculturals: The sector saw strength in livestock markets, while grains struggled. Long positions in Lean hogs and Live cattle were profitable. A short position in Milling wheat also contributed positively. On the downside, short positions in the soy complex weighed on the portfolio, with Soybeans and Soybean meal posting losses.

Equities: In stocks, positions declined both in U.S. and Taiwan. A short position in Paypal holdings delivered positive return, while a short position in Stoxx600 food & beverage posed some losses.

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 30 January 2026

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 06:21:35 GMT

2026/1/30 Weekly Update

Performance Overview
As of 30 January 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of -0.92% and -0.92%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 4.17% and 4.00%, while year-to-date returns 4.17% and 4.00%. The fund delivered solid performance in the first month of 2026.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The sector continued to be the standout performer and a primary driver of returns of the month. Long positions were highly profitable across the board. Gold was the top individual contributor to the MTD performance. Long positions in Tin, Silver and Platinum also ranked among the top contributors. Although silver and gold experienced sharp month-end price corrections, the strategy preserved profits by actively scaling down these positions during their ascent.

Fixed Income: The sector weighed on performance. Long positions in sovereign debt recorded losses, specifically the Us 10-yr t-note and 3-month sonia.

Energy: The sector acted as a significant drag on the portfolio. A short position in Henry Hub natural gas was the largest single detractor. A long position in Uk nbp natural gas month also posted losses. Conversely, a long position in Nordic base yearly future provided a partial offset.

Foreign Exchange: The sector showed divergent results. A short position in Indian rupee/usd was a key driver, while a long position in Mexican peso/usd also rose. However, a short position in New Zealand dollar/usd weighed on returns.

Agriculturals: This sector delivered mixed results. Short positions in Cocoa proved highly profitable, with London and standard contract. However, positions in grains and oilseeds acted as a drag, with Chicago soft red winter wheat and Soybean oil recording losses.

Equities: The fund maintained exposure to equities, which contributed positively to the period's performance. Stocks in the U.S. were the main driver.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 30 January 2025

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 06:21:14 GMT

2026/1/30 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年1月30日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來-0.92%及-0.92%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為4.17%與4.00%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為4.17%與4.00%。基金於2026年第一個月斬獲了穩固的報酬。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 此板塊於本月最終仍維持最佳的表現，為本月推動回報的主要動能。黃金為本月績效最佳的單一貢獻來源。錫、白銀與鉑金的多頭部位亦位列主要貢獻者之中。儘管白銀與黃金在月底經歷了價格大幅回調，但由於策略在價格上漲期間積極減倉，從而成功保住了獲利。

固定收益： 此板塊拖累了整體績效。主權債務的多頭部位錄得虧損，特別是美國10年期國庫券與3個月期Sonia利率期貨。

能源： 能源板塊對投資組合造成顯著拖累。Henry Hub天然氣的空頭部位錄得最大虧損。英國NBP天然氣月期貨的多頭部位亦錄得虧損。反之，北歐電力年度期貨的多頭部位則提供了部分抵銷作用。

外匯： 此板塊表現分歧。印度盧比/美元的空頭部位為主要獲利來源，而墨西哥披索/美元的多頭部位亦有所上揚。然而，紐西蘭元/美元的空頭部位則拖累了整體回報。

農業： 此板塊表現好壞參半。可可的空頭部位獲利豐厚，倫敦與標準合約均有貢獻。然而，穀物與油籽的部位造成拖累，芝加哥軟紅冬小麥與黃豆油均錄得虧損。

股票： 基金維持股票部位的曝險，並於本月帶來正報酬。美股則為本周主要獲利來源。

Epic Collapse: Gold and Silver Markets Shaken by Historic Plunge

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 05:54:35 GMT

2 February 2026

FUTUBULL: Following the sharp plunge in gold and silver prices, all eyes are now on the opening of China's markets on Monday.

Summary

In late January 2026, the global precious metals market witnessed unprecedented volatility. Hit by a convergence of bearish factors, gold and silver prices suffered extreme losses last Friday, causing market sentiment to pivot sharply from extreme optimism to widespread caution.

Spot Silver: Plunged 26% , marking the largest single-day drop in history within a mere 20-hour window.
Spot Gold: Dropped 9% , its worst single-day performance in over a decade.

Market analysts attribute this massive sell-off to leaked reports of Donald Trump’s plan to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Anticipating a more "hawkish" policy stance, the U.S. Dollar Index surged, exerting heavy downward pressure on dollar-denominated precious metals. The recent rally was largely fueled by speculative capital from China —specifically from private equity and retail investors—rather than traditional industrial demand or safe-haven hedging. As the upward momentum stalled, a wave of profit-taking triggered a chain reaction of liquidations.

Commentary

This crash signals a significant "squeezing" of the speculative bubble. In the short term, the market is expected to enter a phase of high volatility. Investors are now watching whether physical holiday demand (driven by the Lunar New Year) can effectively offset the exodus of speculative funds. If successful, gold prices may find a support level; otherwise, the market could face a prolonged technical correction.

金銀價格史詩級崩盤

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 05:54:33 GMT

2026/02/02 新聞評論

FUTUBULL: 金銀價格慘遭重挫，各界屏息關注週一中國開市。

摘要

在 2026 年 1 月底，全球貴金屬市場經歷了歷史性的動盪。受多重利空因素夾擊，黃金與白銀價格在上週五出現極端跌幅，市場情緒從先前的極度樂觀迅速轉變方向。現貨白銀下跌26%，並在20 小時內創下史上最大單日跌幅；現貨黃金則是下跌9%，為十年來最差單日表現。會產生如此巨大的變動，市場將原因歸咎於川普預計提名凱文·華許（Kevin Warsh）擔任下屆聯準會主席的消息外流，市場預期政策將趨於鷹派，激發美元指數大幅飆升，直接壓制以美元計價的貴金屬。而先前推動價格上漲的主要是來自中國的投機性資金（如私募與散戶），並非傳統的工業或避險需求。當漲勢受阻時，獲利了結引發了連鎖清算。

市場評論

目前的崩盤象徵著「投機性泡沫」的擠壓。短期內，市場將進入震盪期。如果實體節慶需求能有效對沖投機資金的流出，金價有望在調整後尋找支撐點；否則，市場可能面臨更長時間的技術性修正。

科技財報釋放訊號：AI 需求仍在升溫

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 08:19:08 GMT

2026/01/29 新聞評論

CNBC: Chip giant ASML surges 7% as AI boom fuels record orders and upbeat 2026 guidance

CNBC: Meta shares jump 10% on stronger-than-expected revenue forecast

CNBC: Microsoft stock drops 7% on slowing cloud growth, light margin guidance

摘要

本周是眾多科技股發表財報與財測的黃金周，截至目前，ASML、Meta、微軟公布的上季財報營收與獲利表現皆超過市場預期，更進一步上調今年資本支出的規模，超乎分析師預期，科技股積極部署AI與基礎設備，讓市場對科技股未來前景更有信心。

ASML在去年第四季與去年全年營收皆創歷史新高，各達97億歐元與327億歐元，並在第四季的接單金額從前季的54億歐元大幅上升至132億歐元，且其中的74億歐元是EUV訂單，顯示EUV技術的訂單強勁，是主要推動營收成長的動能。預期今年第一季的銷售淨額約82至89億歐元，毛利率約51%至53%，全年總銷售淨額約340億到390億歐元。
Meta在去年第四季的營收598.9億美元、EPS 8.88美元皆超出市場預期，主要受惠廣告業務推動整體業績。對今年第一季的財測與全年的資本支出也驚艷市場，預計第一季銷售額將在535億美元至565億美元，高於市場預期514.1億美元，全年的投入在AI基礎建設、算力與人才的資本支出約1,150億美元至1,350億美元，遠高於預期的1,107億美元，是去年722億美元近2倍的規模，並預期未來幾個月將推出新模型與產品。
微軟在上季營收812.7億美元、EPS 5.16美元皆超出市場預期，資本支出375億美元，年增66%。微軟商用訂單主要由OpenAI以及Anthropic的需求推動，成長230%。商業剩餘履約義務達到 6,250 億美元，年增約 110%，其中以OpenAI簽署2,500億美元的雲端服務為最大宗。

市場評論與我們的觀點

ASML獲利創新高且大戶訂單需求強勁，使得在1/28盤後公布財報後一度大漲10%。然而，截至2025年底，積壓訂單高達388億歐元，市場擔心遠超過預期的訂單量過高，企業是否能擴張產能負擔，導致當天最終下跌2.18%。
Meta的業績與財測亮眼，並增加投入AI的資本支出，1/28盤後公布財報後一度大漲11%。
儘管微軟財報超出預期，但因為雲端業務的成長從前一季的40%略為下降至39%，也低於分析師預期的39.4%，故在1/28盤後公布後股價一度下跌6%。

我們認為，截至本週公布的科技巨頭財報顯示，其基本面多數仍維持正向，AI 需求持續推升企業業績表現，大型雲端服務供應商（CSP）亦持續積極擴建資料中心，以強化算力規模與模型開發環境。隨著 AI 部署規模不斷擴大，我們認為，支撐 AI 運作的能源供給，以及 AI 應用端的實際落地，將成為企業未來發展的核心重點。考量水資源與電力供給具有限制性，在 AI 硬體與軟體逐步落地後，如何創造並確保穩定且充足的電力資源，將成為 AI 長期運作的關鍵；同時，AI 應用能否為企業帶來實質現金流回報，也將是檢視 AI 投資成效，並影響市場對 AI 浪潮評價的關鍵因素。

Earnings Signals from Big Tech: AI Demand Continues to Heat Up

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 08:15:04 GMT

29 January 2026

CNBC: Chip giant ASML surges 7% as AI boom fuels record orders and upbeat 2026 guidance

CNBC: Meta shares jump 10% on stronger-than-expected revenue forecast

CNBC: Microsoft stock drops 7% on slowing cloud growth, light margin guidance

Summary

This week marks a peak earnings period for major technology companies, with many releasing both earnings results and forward guidance. To date, ASML, Meta, and Microsoft have all reported revenue and profit figures for the previous quarter that exceeded market expectations, while also announcing larger-than-expected increases in capital expenditure for the year ahead. Their aggressive investment in AI and related infrastructure has further strengthened market confidence in the long-term outlook for technology stocks.

ASML reported record-high revenue for both the fourth quarter and full year, reaching EUR 9.7 billion and EUR 32.7 billion, respectively. Fourth-quarter order intake surged from EUR 5.4 billion in the prior quarter to EUR 13.2 billion, of which EUR 7.4 billion came from EUV systems, highlighting robust demand for EUV technology as the primary driver of revenue growth. For the first quarter of this year, ASML expects net sales of approximately EUR 8.2–8.9 billion, with a gross margin of around 51%–53%. Full-year net sales are projected to reach approximately EUR 34–39 billion.
Meta reported fourth-quarter revenue of USD 59.89 billion and EPS of USD 8.88, both exceeding market expectations, primarily driven by strong advertising performance. The company’s guidance for first-quarter revenue and full-year capital expenditure also surprised the market. Meta expects first-quarter revenue of USD 53.5–56.5 billion, above the consensus estimate of USD 51.41 billion. Full-year capital expenditure, mainly allocated to AI infrastructure, computing capacity, and talent, is projected at USD 115–135 billion, significantly higher than the market expectation of USD 110.7 billion and nearly double last year’s USD 72.2 billion. Meta also indicated that new models and products are expected to be launched in the coming months.
Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of USD 81.27 billion and EPS of USD 5.16, both surpassing market expectations. Capital expenditure reached USD 37.5 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 66%. Microsoft’s commercial bookings were primarily driven by demand from OpenAI and Anthropic, surging by 230%. Commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) rose to USD 625 billion, up approximately 110% year over year, with OpenAI’s USD 250 billion cloud services contract accounting for the largest portion.

Commentary

ASML’s record profits and strong large-scale order demand initially drove the stock up as much as 10% following its after-hours earnings release on January 28. However, with backlog orders reaching EUR 38.8 billion by the end of 2025, the market grew concerned about whether capacity expansion could keep pace with the exceptionally high order volume, leading the stock to close down 2.18% on the day.
Meta’s strong earnings, upbeat guidance, and increased AI-related capital expenditure pushed its shares up as much as 11% in after-hours trading on January 28.
Despite Microsoft’s earnings beat, its share price fell as much as 6% after hours on January 28, as cloud revenue growth slowed slightly to 39% from 40% in the prior quarter, below the consensus expectation of 39.4%.

We believe that earnings results released by major technology companies through this week indicate that underlying fundamentals remain broadly positive. AI-driven demand continues to support strong corporate performance, while major cloud service providers (CSPs) remain highly committed to expanding data center capacity to enhance computing power and model development capabilities. As AI deployment scales further, we view energy supply to support AI operations, along with the successful commercialization of AI applications, as key focal points for future corporate development. Given the constraints on water and electricity resources, ensuring the creation and availability of stable and sufficient power supply will be critical to the long-term operation of AI as hardware and software continue to be deployed. At the same time, the ability of AI applications to generate tangible cash flows for enterprises will be a key metric for evaluating returns on AI investments and will play a decisive role in shaping market perceptions of the AI growth cycle.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 23 January 2025

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 07:33:03 GMT

2026/1/23 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年1月23日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來0.87%及0.87%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為5.14%與4.97%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為5.14%與4.97%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 此板塊持續表現亮眼，並成為推動基金大幅獲利的主要動能。全面性的多頭佈局帶來了顯著的報酬。黃金為最佳的單一貢獻來源。白銀、鉑金與錫亦位列主要貢獻者之中。

固定收益： 利率板塊拖累了績效。主權債務的多頭部位錄得虧損，特別是美國10 年期國庫券與美國5年期國庫券。3個月期Sonia利率的多頭部位亦造成拖累。

能源： 能源板塊對投資組合造成拖累。天然氣市場的空頭部位表現疲憊，Henry Hub天然氣與英國NBP天然氣月期貨均錄得虧損。

外匯： 此板塊對績效產生正向貢獻。印度盧比/美元的空頭部位為主要驅動力，而墨西哥披索/美元的多頭部位亦帶來正報酬。相反地，紐西蘭元/美元的空頭部位則拖累了回報。

農業： 此板塊表現好壞參半。可可的空頭部位獲利豐厚，倫敦與標準合約均帶來正報酬。然而，穀物與油籽的空頭部位造成拖累，黃豆油與芝加哥軟紅冬小麥均錄得虧損。

股票： 基金維持股票的淨多頭曝險。雖然整體板塊帶來正報酬。值得注意的是，VanEck黃金礦業ETF的多頭部位受惠於貴金屬板塊的漲勢，帶來了穩健的獲利。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 23 January 2026

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 07:31:15 GMT

2026/1/23 Weekly Update

Performance Overview
As of 23 January 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 0.87% and 0.87%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 5.14% and 4.97%, while year-to-date returns 5.14% and 4.97%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The sector remained the standout performer and the primary driver of the fund's substantial gains. Long positions across the board delivered significant returns. Gold was the top individual contributor. Silver, Platinum, and Tin also ranked among the top contributors.

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector weighed on performance. Long positions in sovereign debt recorded losses, specifically the Us 10-yr t-note and Us 5-yr t-note. Long position in 3-month sonia also detracted.

Energy: The Energy sector acted as a drag on the portfolio. Short positions in natural gas markets struggled, with Henry hub natural gas and Uk nbp natural gas month posting losses.

Foreign Exchange: The sector contributed positively to performance. A short position in Indian rupee/usd was a key driver, while long position in Mexican peso/usd also delivered positive return. Conversely, a short position in New zealand dollar/usd weighed on returns.

Agriculturals: This sector delivered mixed results. Short positions in Cocoa proved highly profitable, with London and standard contracts also delivered positive return. However, short positions in grains and oilseeds acted as a drag, with Soybean oil and Chicago soft red winter wheat recording losses.

Equities: The fund maintained net long exposure to equities. While the overall sector contribution was positive. Notably, a long position in the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF delivered solid gains, benefiting from the broader rally in the precious metals sector.

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 16 January 2026

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 06:27:12 GMT

2026/1/16 Weekly Update

Performance Overview
As of 16 January 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 1.35% and 1.35%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 4.23% and 4.06%, while year-to-date returns 4.23% and 4.06%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The Metals sector remained the standout performer and a primary driver of returns. Long positions were highly profitable across the board. Silver was the top individual contributor to the MTD performance. Tin, Gold, and Platinum also ranked among the top contributors.

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector acted as a drag on performance. Long positions in US Treasuries struggled, with the Us 10-yr t-note and Us 5-yr t-note recording losses. A short position in Euro-buxl also detracted slightly.

Energy: The Energy sector showed divergent results. A long position in Eu co2 allowance contributed positively. However, short positions in natural gas acted as a drag, with Uk nbp natural gas and Dutch ttf natural gas month posting losses.

Foreign Exchange: The sector delivered positive returns driven by Asian currency exposures. A short position in Indian rupee/usd and a long position in Usd/korean won were key contributors.

Agriculturals: This sector saw mixed performance. Short positions in Cocoa (both standard and London contracts) were profitable. Conversely, short positions in grains and oilseeds weighed on the portfolio, with losses recorded in Soybean oil, Chicago soft red winter wheat, and Canola.

Equities: The fund maintained exposure to equities. While the overall sector contribution was positive. Especially in Taiwan market. Longs in semiconductor and energy relatives brought extraordinary returns.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 16 January 2025

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 06:27:10 GMT

2026/1/16 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年1月16日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來1.35%及1.35%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為4.23%與4.06%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為4.23%與4.06%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 金屬板塊表現最為亮眼，是推動整體報酬的主要動力。多頭部位全面獲利。白銀是本月至今績效的最大單一貢獻來源。錫、黃金和白金也名列主要貢獻者之列。

固定收益： 利率板塊拖累了整體績效。美國公債的多頭部位表現掙扎，其中美國10年期公債(US 10-yr T-note)和美國5年期公債均錄得虧損。歐元長債(Euro-buxl)的空頭部位也造成輕微的負面影響。

能源： 能源板塊表現分歧。歐盟二氧化碳排放權的多頭部位帶來正報酬。然而，天然氣的空頭部位造成拖累，英國NBP天然氣和荷蘭TTF天然氣期貨均錄得虧損。

外匯： 該板塊受惠於亞洲貨幣的曝險，帶來正報酬。印度盧比兌美元的空頭部位以及美元兌韓元的多頭部位是主要貢獻來源。

農業： 可可（包含標準合約與倫敦合約）的空頭部位獲利。相反地，穀物和油籽的空頭部位對投資組合造成壓力，黃豆油、芝加哥軟紅冬麥和油菜籽均錄得虧損。

股票： 基金維持了股票部位的曝險。整體部位帶來正報酬，特別是在台灣市場。半導體及能源相關類股的多頭部位帶來了卓越的報酬。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 9 January 2026

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 05:37:44 GMT

2026/1/9 Weekly Update

Performance Overview
As of 9 January 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 1.14% and 1.14%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 2.84% and 2.68%, while year-to-date returns 2.84% and 2.68%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The sector was the standout performer and the primary driver of the fund's substantial gains. Long positions across precious and industrial metals were highly rewarding. Platinum and Silver were the top individual contributors to the performance, respectively. Long positions in Tin, Gold, and High Grade Copper further bolstered returns.

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector showed divergent results. A long position in 3-month Sonia contributed positively. Conversely, broad exposure to other sovereign debt weighed on performance; long positions in US 10-yr T-notes and short positions in Australian Government Bonds (10-year and 3-year) posted losses.

Foreign Exchange: The sector delivered positive return, with short Indian rupee/usd were the main driver. Short New zealand dollar/usd posed some losses.

Agriculturals: This sector delivered mixed results. Short positions in Cocoa proved profitable, with both standard and London contracts contributing each. However, short positions in grains and oilseeds acted as a drag, with Chicago soft red winter wheat and Soybean oil recording losses.

Equities: The fund maintained exposure to equities, which contributed positively to the period's returns. AI markets dominated most of the exposure.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 9 January 2025

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 05:37:41 GMT

2026/1/9 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2026年1月9日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來1.14%及1.14%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為2.84%與2.68%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為2.84%與2.68%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 此板塊表現最為亮眼，是推動基金大幅獲利的主要動能。貴金屬與工業金屬的全面多頭佈局帶來了豐厚的利潤。鉑金與白銀分別是績效最大的單一貢獻來源。錫、黃金與高級銅的多頭部位進一步推升了收益。

固定收益： 利率板塊表現分歧。3 個月期Sonia利率期貨的多頭部位帶來正向貢獻。相反地，對其他主權債務的廣泛曝險拖累了績效；美國10年期國庫券的多頭部位與澳洲公債（10年期與3年期）的空頭部位均錄得虧損。

外匯： 外匯市場帶來正報酬，印度盧比/美元的空頭部位為主要驅動力。紐西蘭元/美元的空頭部位則造成部分虧損。

農業： 農產品市場表現好壞參半。可可的空頭部位獲利，標準合約與倫敦合約均有貢獻。然而，穀物與油籽的空頭部位表現下跌，芝加哥軟紅冬小麥與黃豆油均錄得虧損。

股票： 基金維持股票部位的曝險，並於本周帶來正報酬。人工智慧（AI）市場主導了大部分的曝險。

CES_AI Hardware in Short Supply: Vera Rubin Drives a New Wave of Capital Rotation

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 10:56:39 GMT

08 January 2026

Reuters: Nvidia CEO Huang says next generation of chips is in full production

Summary

Micron’s quarterly results and next-quarter guidance both exceeded market expectations, underscoring the strong momentum in the memory upcycle driven by AI and high-performance computing (HPC).

For FY2026 Q1, Micron reported revenue of USD 13.64 billion, up 57% year over year, surpassing consensus estimates of USD 12.95 billion. EPS reached USD 4.78, well above the market expectation of USD 3.95.

Looking ahead, Micron’s forward guidance was equally robust. The company expects next-quarter revenue of USD 18.3–19.1 billion, significantly higher than analysts’ consensus of USD 14.4 billion, while EPS is projected at USD 8.22–8.62, compared with market expectations of USD 4.71. Micron emphasized that industry demand remains strong, memory supply is still tight in the near term, and the current memory shortage is expected to persist beyond next year.

Commentary

Despite recent selling pressure across technology stocks, Micron’s results reinvigorated bullish sentiment toward the memory sector, driving the stock up by approximately 8% in after-hours trading and lifting broader tech shares.

We believe the current memory market is experiencing supply tightness and rising prices, primarily driven by AI server demand. In addition, major memory manufacturers such as Micron and SK hynix are gradually reallocating capacity toward higher-margin products, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5. During this transition, both advanced-node memory and traditional consumer memory are facing simultaneous supply constraints. Although many memory producers are expanding capacity, new fabs and lines require time to come online. As a result, near-term demand momentum is expected to remain strong, with the upcycle likely to extend through 2028.

CES_AI 硬體全面供不應求：Vera Rubin 帶動資金輪動新方向

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 10:54:10 GMT

2026/01/08 新聞評論

Reuters: Nvidia CEO Huang says next generation of chips is in full production

摘要

輝達執行長黃仁勳在今年的CES中，展示最新的Vera Rubin平台，並且宣布已進入量產階段。與以往不同的是，過去發表新產品是整體的運算平台沿用前一代的規模，升級某幾顆關鍵的AI晶片，讓整體效能與功耗大幅改善。然而，有鑑於摩爾定律的放緩，這次輝達設計六款在新平台上運行的晶片，並且整合至Vera Rubin平台，除了最受矚目的Vera CPU、Rubin GPU，也增加ConnectX-9 網卡、Spectrum-X光乙太網交換晶片、BlueField-4 DPU、NVLink-6 交換晶片，透過六款晶片的深度整合，讓Vera Rubin整體效能相對上一代Blackwell顯著提升，也大大降低功耗與工程設計的成本。

市場評論與我們的觀點

黃仁勳同時提及目前的AI痛點是上下文和情境的記憶體空間不足，是發展AI推論的一大瓶頸，為此也提出解決方案。在Vera Rubin平台，將以BlueField-4處理器為核心，負責管理AI工作時產生的「KV Cache」(鍵值緩存)，擴充背後的記憶體的處存量，並且也表明，目前的記憶體與儲存晶片的市場需求仍未被滿足，在AI時代下將有巨大的成長潛能，激勵記憶體族群近期漲勢凌厲，Sandisk在1/6大漲27.56%，美光也大漲10.02%。

在AI的熱潮下，相關硬體設備需求供不應求，帶動市場資金在不同電子零組件的板塊中移動，AI相關商機從硬體至軟體，甚至是AI的落地應用皆潛力無窮，投資人除了可在硬體設備上布局，也可留意軟體面與企業、個人應用面的相關標的，找出下一個可能受惠於AI趨勢下的板塊。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 2 January 2026

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 09:21:12 GMT

2026/1/2 Weekly Update

Performance Overview
At the year-end of 2025, the estimated MFSP A and B year-to-date returns were 10.59% and 8.47% respectively. As of 2 January 2026, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 1.08% and 0.92%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at 1.69% and 1.52%, while year-to-date returns 1.69% and 1.52%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The sector contributed negatively to the portfolio. During the last week of the year, most of the metals faced some pressure to take profits. In the new year, the fund held net long positions in metals.

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector showed divergent results. Short positions in European and Australian debt were profitable, with Euro-buxl and Austr. 10-yr gvt. bond acting as top contributors. Conversely, long positions in US and UK rates weighed on performance, as the US 10-yr T-note, 3-month Sonia, and long Gilt recorded losses.

Foreign Exchange: The sector delivered positive return, with short Indian rupee/usd were the main driver. Short New zealand dollar/usd posed some losses.

Agriculturals: The sector provided the most performance of the week. Long position in Live Cattle was the largest single contributor to the performance. Long positions in Feeder Cattle and short positions in Sugar no. 11 also contributed positively. However, a short position in Soybean Oil acted as a slight drag.

Energy: The Energy sector delivered strong results, with a long position in Nordic base yearly future ranking as the second-best performing market for the period.

Equities: The fund maintained exposure to Equities, which contributed positively to the weekly returns as indicated by the net long attribution.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 2 January 2025

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 09:21:11 GMT

2026/1/2 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至2025年年底，MFSP A股與B股全年分別帶來10.59%及8.47%的績效。截至2026年1月2日，MFSP A股與B股本週分別帶來1.08%及0.92%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為1.69%與1.52%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為1.69%與1.52%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 此板塊對投資組合帶來負報酬。在去年的最後一週，大多數金屬面臨部分獲利了結的賣壓。進入新的一年，基金在金屬板塊持有淨多頭部位。

固定收益： 利率板塊表現分歧。歐洲與澳洲債市的空頭部位獲利，其中 Euro-buxl與澳洲10年期公債為主要貢獻者。相反地，美國與英國利率的多頭部位拖累了績效，美國10年期國庫券、3 個月期 Sonia 利率期貨以及英國長期公債均錄得虧損。

外匯： 此板塊本週帶來正報酬，其中印度盧比/美元的空頭部位為主要驅動力。紐西蘭元/美元的空頭部位則造成部分虧損。

農業： 農產品部位本週帶給基金最多報酬。基金最大獲利來源來自做多活牛部位。飼育牛的多頭部位與 11 號糖的空頭部位亦帶來正報酬。然而，黃豆油的空頭部位帶來小幅虧損。

能源： 能源板塊表現強勁，其中北歐電力年度期貨的多頭部位位列本週表現第二佳的市場。

股票： 基金維持股票部位的曝險，做多股票市場於本周帶給基金正報酬。

PAM MFSP 週報 – 26 December 2025

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 06:35:31 GMT

2025/12/26 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至12月26日，MFSP A與B類股本週均帶來1.73%的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為1.67%與1.51%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為10.94%與8.80%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 金屬板塊表現最為亮眼，並成為推動基金獲利的主要動能。全面性的多頭佈局帶來了豐厚的報酬。白銀為最佳的單一貢獻來源。鉑金表現亦相當優異，同時黃金與高級銅的多頭部位更進一步推升了整體績效。

固定收益： 利率板塊表現分歧。澳洲債市的空頭部位持續獲利。然而，北美利率的多頭部位則拖累了績效，其中加拿大隔夜附買回利率與美國10年期國庫券均錄得虧損。

農業： 此板塊表現持續疲弱，對投資組合造成拖累。黃豆的多頭部位為最大的虧損來源。黃豆粉與阿拉比卡咖啡亦錄得虧損。相對地，基金在其他軟性商品的佈局難以抵銷上述跌幅。

股票： 基金在股票市場維持淨多頭部位，對本週績效產生正向貢獻。此板塊提供了持續且穩健的獲利，與金屬市場的強勁表現相輔相成。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 26 December 2025

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 06:34:26 GMT

2025/12/26 Weekly Update

Performance Overview
As of December 19, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 0.85% and 0.85%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -0.05% and -0.22%, while year-to-date returns 9.05% and 6.96%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The Metals sector continued to be the primary driver of positive performance for the portfolio. Long positions across precious and industrial metals were highly rewarding. Silver was the top individual contributor. Platinum and Tin also ranked among the top contributors.

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector displayed divergent results. Short positions in European and Australian debt performed well, with Euro-buxl and Austr. 10-yr gvt. bond acting as top contributors. However, long positions in North American rates acted as a drag, with the Canadian overnight repo rate and US 10-yr T-note posting losses.

Agriculturals: After a long drawdown, agricultural sector rebounded this week. A long position in Soybeans was the largest single detractor. Losses were also recorded in Arabica coffee and Soybean meal. Conversely, short positions in Chicago soft red winter wheat and Soybean oil provided a partial offset with positive returns.

Equities: The fund maintained exposure to Equities, which contributed positively to the weekly returns as indicated by the net long attribution. This positive contribution helped reinforce the gains made in the metals sector.

Silver price suffers biggest loss since 2021, gold price falls from record

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 06:45:50 GMT

30 December 2025

PearTree: Silver price suffers biggest loss since 2021, gold price falls from record

Summary

On December 29, 2025, the silver market witnessed a dramatic day. Driven by a surge in Chinese investment demand (with Shanghai premiums hitting record highs) and concerns over global supply shortages, spot silver prices soared to a historic peak of $83.63 per ounce during early Asian trading hours. At this pinnacle, silver's total market capitalization briefly surpassed that of the AI giant NVIDIA, capturing the global spotlight.

However, the extreme gains immediately triggered large-scale profit-taking, causing silver prices to crash by nearly 10% and retreat to the low $70s—marking the largest single-day decline since 2021. Despite this volatility, silver remained one of the top-performing assets of 2025, with a year-to-date gain of 148%, far outperforming most mainstream assets. Gold followed a similar pattern, pulling back after hitting its own record of $4,543 per ounce.

Commentary

This rally is not only a victory for precious metals but also a microcosm of broader market sentiment. Silver’s market cap briefly overtaking NVIDIA symbolizes a capital rotation from "virtual AI premiums" toward "physical scarcity." When industrial demand overlaps with safe-haven attributes, traditional metals can exhibit explosive growth rivaling high-tech stocks. This also serves as a testament to the ongoing upward trajectory of the global economy.

Technical Warnings: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained above 70 for an extended period, indicating an extremely overbought market. The 10% single-day drop is a classic high-leverage shakeout, reflecting silver's higher and more dangerous volatility compared to gold.

Structural Support: Despite the short-term technical collapse, the fundamental drivers—including the Federal Reserve's rate-cut cycle, the squeeze on London inventories, and robust physical demand from China—remain intact. As long as structural deficits persist, the metal is expected to stay on a long-term upward trajectory in 2026.

Conclusion:

Current silver price action behaves more like a high-risk growth stock rather than a traditional stable safe-haven asset. For investors, enjoying these staggering gains requires the psychological resilience to endure intense market turbulence.

白銀價格遭遇 2021 年以來最大跌幅，黃金從歷史高位回落

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 06:45:48 GMT

2025/12/30 新聞評論

PearTree: 白銀價格遭遇 2021 年以來最大跌幅，黃金從歷史高位回落

摘要

2025年12月29日，白銀市場經歷了戲劇性的一天。受中國投資需求激增（上海溢價創歷史新高）及全球供應短缺憂慮推動，現貨白銀在亞洲時段早盤飆升至每盎司 83.63美元的歷史新高。在這一巔峰時刻，白銀的總市值甚至一度超越了 AI 巨頭輝達（Nvidia），成為全球市場焦點。然而，極致的漲幅隨即引發大規模獲利回吐，銀價在創高後迅速崩跌近 10%，回落至 70 美元出頭，創下 2021 年以來最大單日跌幅。儘管如此，白銀在 2025 年全年的漲幅仍高達 148%，表現遠超多數主流資產。黃金也同步在創下每盎司 4,543美元的紀錄後出現連帶回檔。

市場評論

這波漲勢屬於貴金屬的勝利，更是市場情緒的縮影。白銀市值短暫超越輝達，象徵著市場從「虛擬AI溢價」向「實體稀缺資源」的資金轉移。當工業需求與避險屬性重疊時，傳統金屬的爆發力不亞於高科技股。這也是全球經濟正向上成長的最佳佐證。

技術性警訊： 新聞中所提及14 天相對強弱指數（RSI）長期處於 70 以上的超買區，顯示市場已極度過熱。單日10%的跌幅是典型的高槓桿洗盤，反映出白銀市場相較於黃金，具有更高、更危險的波動特性。

結構性供需仍是支撐： 儘管短期出現技術性崩跌，但支撐本輪漲勢的包括聯準會降息循環、倫敦庫存緊縮以及中國強勁的實物需求。只要結構性缺口存在，預期2026年該金屬仍舊處於長期上升軌道上。

結論

白銀目前的走勢更像是一種高風險成長股，而非傳統的穩定避險資產。對於投資者而言，在享受其驚人漲幅的同時，必須具備承受劇烈震盪的心理素質。

PAM MFSP 週報 – 19 December 2025

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 10:09:25 GMT

2025/12/19 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至 12 月 19 日，MFSP A 與 B 類股本週均帶來 0.85% 的表現。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為 -0.05% 與 -0.22%，而今年至今（YTD）報酬率則分別為 9.05% 與 6.96%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬：金屬板塊持續作為投資組合正向績效的主要驅動力。貴金屬與工業金屬的多頭部位獲利相當豐厚。白銀（Silver）為最大的單一貢獻來源。鉑金（Platinum）與錫（Tin）亦位列主要貢獻者之中。

固定收益：利率板塊表現分歧。歐洲與澳洲債市的空頭部位表現優異，其中 Euro-buxl（德國超長期公債期貨）與澳洲10年期公債為主要貢獻者。然而，北美利率的多頭部位造成拖累，加拿大隔夜附買回利率與美國 10 年期國庫券均錄得虧損。

農產品：經歷長時間的回撤後，農業板塊本週出現反彈。黃豆（Soybeans）的多頭部位為最大的單一負面貢獻來源。阿拉比卡咖啡（Arabica coffee）與黃豆粉（Soybean meal）亦錄得虧損。反之，芝加哥軟紅冬小麥與黃豆油（Soybean oil）的空頭部位帶來正報酬，提供了部分抵銷作用。

股票：基金維持股票部位的曝險，同時也在本周帶給基金正報酬。股票市場上漲協助鞏固了金屬板塊所帶來的獲利。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 19 December 2025

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 10:07:30 GMT

2025/12/19 Weekly Update

Performance Overview
As of December 12, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of -0.87% and -0.87%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -1.23% and -1.39%, while year-to-date returns 8.14% and 6.05%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals: The Metals sector continued to be a primary source of positive performance for the portfolio. Long positions in Silver and Tin were among the top contributor. A long position in Gold also contributed positively.

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector displayed divergent results. Short positions in Australian Government Bonds performed well, with the 10-year and 3-year bonds acting as top contributors. Short positions in Euro-buxl also added value. However, long positions in North American rates acted as a drag, with the US 10-yr T-note and Canadian overnight repo rate posting losses.

Agriculturals: This sector was the significant laggard for the period. A long position in Soybeans was the largest single detractor, followed by losses in Soybean Meal. Conversely, short positions in Corn and Chicago soft red winter wheat provided some offset with positive returns.

Equities: The fund maintained its exposure to equities, with Month-to-Date (MTD) performance remaining roughly flat. As the US stock market gradually bottoms out, we expect the existing momentum to persist over the next two weeks.

AI-Driven Memory Upcycle Gains Momentum as Micron Outperforms

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 07:58:56 GMT

18 December 2025

Reuters: Micron forecasts blowout earnings on booming AI market, shares rise 7%

Summary

Micron’s quarterly results and next-quarter guidance both exceeded market expectations, underscoring the strong momentum in the memory upcycle driven by AI and high-performance computing (HPC).

Commentary

由AI推動的記憶體市況-美光財報

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 07:55:28 GMT

2025/12/18 新聞評論

Reuters: Micron forecasts blowout earnings on booming AI market, shares rise 7%

摘要

美光本季財報表現與下季財測皆超出市場預期，顯示這波由AI高效能運算推動的記憶體景氣復甦動能強勁。美光2026財年第一季營收年增57%至136.4億美元，高於市場預期的129.5億美元，且EPS為4.78美元，也優於預期的3.95美元。本季財測方面，預估營收達183億至191億美元，高於分析師預估平均144億美元，EPS預估達8.22至8.62美元，亦高於預估的4.71美元。美光強調，目前產業需求強勁，短期記憶體供給仍緊俏，預期記憶體短缺現象將持續到明年以後。

市場評論與我們的觀點

儘管近期科技股賣壓承重，但美光的財報表現激勵市場看多記憶體市況，盤後上漲約8%，同時帶動科技股盤後上漲。我們認為，當前記憶體市場因AI伺服器推動，造成供給吃緊，價格走揚，再加上隨美光、SK海力士等記憶體大廠逐漸將產能轉至高利潤產品，如高頻寬記憶體(HBM)、DDR5等，這段轉換的期間導致先進製程的記憶體與傳統消費性記憶體領域同時供不應求，儘管眾多記憶體廠有擴建新產線，但建置需要時間，短期內的記憶體需求動能仍強勁，預期將延續至2028年。

PAM MFSP 週報 – 12 December 2025

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 06:27:30 GMT

2025/12/12 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至 12 月 12日，MFSP A 與 B 類股本週錄得-0.87%及-0.87%的正報酬。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為-1.23%與-1.39%，而年度至今（YTD）報酬率則分別達到8.14%與6.05%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬：金屬板塊持續成為投資組合正報酬的主要來源。白銀（Silver）與錫（Tin）的多頭部位為主要貢獻者。黃金（Gold）的多頭部位亦帶來正向貢獻。

固定收益：利率板塊表現分歧。澳洲公債的空頭部位表現優異，其中 10 年期與 3 年期公債均為主要貢獻者。Euro-buxl（德國長期公債期貨）的空頭部位亦增添了價值。然而，北美利率的多頭部位對績效造成拖累，美國 10 年期國庫券（US 10-yr T-note）與加拿大隔夜附買回利率（Canadian overnight repo rate）均錄得虧損。

農產品：此板塊為這段期間的主要落後者。黃豆（Soybeans）的多頭部位為最主要虧損來源，其次為黃豆粉（Soybean Meal）的虧損。反之，玉米（Corn）與芝加哥軟紅冬小麥（Chicago soft red winter wheat）的空頭部位則帶來正報酬，提供了部分抵銷作用。

股票：基金維持股票部位的曝險，月初至今（MTD）績效維持平盤左右。隨著美國股市逐漸落底，預期接下來半個月仍能維持既有的動能。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 12 December 2025

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 06:27:28 GMT

2025/12/12 Weekly Update

Sector Analysis and Attribution

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 5 December 2025

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 08:50:55 GMT

2025/12/5 Weekly Update

Performance Overview
As of December 5, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of -0.36% and -0.52%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -0.36% and -0.52%, while year-to-date returns 9.09% and 6.99%.

Sector Analysis and Attribution

Metals (Positive): The Metals sector remained a primary source of resilience for the portfolio. Long positions in Silver and High Grade Copper were among the top contributors respectively. Tin and standard Copper long positions also contributed positively.

Fixed Income: The Interest Rates sector showed divergent results. Short positions in Australian Government Bonds (10-year and 3-year) performed well. However, long positions in US Treasuries (10-year and 5-year T-notes) acted as a drag.

Agriculturals: This sector was the significant laggard for the week. A long position in Soybeans was the largest single detractor, followed by losses in Soybean Meal . Conversely, short positions in Sugar no. 11 and Corn provided some offset with positive returns.

Equities: The fund maintained a net long position in equities. A rebound from the semiconductor sector delivered solid performance, helping to offset some of the losses sustained in other commodity sectors.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 5 December 2025

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 08:50:54 GMT

2025/12/5 MFSP週報

績效總覽

截至 12 月 5 日，MFSP A 與 B 類股本週錄得-0.36%及-0.52%的正報酬。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為-0.36%與-0.52%，而年度至今（YTD）報酬率則分別達到9.09%與6.99%。

板塊分析與績效回顧

金屬： 金屬板塊仍是投資組合展現韌性的主要來源。白銀與 高級銅 的多頭部位分別位列主要績效貢獻者。錫與 一般銅 的多頭部位亦帶來正報酬。

固定收益： 利率板塊表現分歧。 澳洲公債 （10 年期與 3 年期）的空頭部位表現優異。然而， 美國公債 （10 年期與 5 年期國庫券）的多頭部位則對績效造成拖累。

農產品： 此板塊為本週表現最顯著的落後者。黃豆的多頭部位帶來最多損失，其次為 黃豆粉 的虧損。反之， 11 號糖 與玉米的空頭部位則帶來正報酬，提供了部分抵銷作用。

股票： 基金在股票市場維持淨多頭部位。 半導體 類股的反彈帶來了穩健的表現，協助抵銷了部分來自其他商品板塊的虧損。

銀價強勢衝破60美元：降息與供給短缺引爆結構性牛市

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 06:47:58 GMT

2025/12/5 新聞評論

INN: Silver Price Surges Past US$60 to Hit New All-time High

摘要

全球貴金屬市場近期迎來了歷史性的一刻，白銀價格在 2025 年 12 月 9 日強勢突破每盎司 60 美元大關，盤中最高觸及 60.56 美元，不僅創下歷史新高，更確立了其在今年金融市場中的黑馬地位。統計今年以來的表現，白銀累計漲幅已達 100%，遠超黃金約 59% 的漲幅，顯示出這項「窮人的黃金」在牛市後期的爆發力已全面超越傳統避險資產。

市場評論與我們的觀點

推動這波史詩級行情的首要動力，來自宏觀經濟環境的劇烈轉向。市場普遍預期美國聯準會（Fed）將在 12 月 10 日的會議上宣布降息，這直接削弱了美元強勢，為貴金屬提供了上漲溫床。與此同時，美國政經局勢的變化也起到了推波助瀾的作用。美國總統川普預計將提名傾向低利率政策的凱文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）出任下一屆聯準會主席，市場解讀此舉將開啟新一輪的寬鬆貨幣週期，旨在降低車貸與房貸成本以刺激經濟。這種對未來「廉價資金」的預期，進一步點燃了投資人對抗通膨資產的渴求。

除了宏觀政策的順風，白銀市場本身脆弱的供需結構則是支撐價格暴漲的基石。不同於黃金主要作為投資儲備，白銀擁有龐大的工業需求。受惠於全球光電（太陽能）、電動車及電網基礎設施的建設潮，2024 年工業用銀需求創下歷史新高。根據統計，全球白銀市場已連續四年出現「供不應求」的赤字狀態，2024 年的供給缺口更高達 1.489 億盎司。更令人擔憂的是庫存數據，作為主要供應國之一的中國，其白銀庫存因大量出口至倫敦，目前已降至十年來的最低水位，實體市場的緊缺感正快速蔓延。

此外，市場情緒的催化劑也不可忽視。11 月底 CME Group 因數據中心故障曾短暫暫停交易，雖然問題迅速解決，但這起意外引發了交易員對市場流動性的恐慌，反而成為資金加速湧入實體資產的導火線。展望未來，分析師普遍認為白銀正處於結構性牛市的甜蜜點，隨著工業需求持續強勁以及貨幣政策的寬鬆確立，2026 年白銀極有可能延續強勢表現，繼續在收益率上跑贏黃金。

Silver Smashes $60: Rate Cuts and Scarcity Fuel a Structural Bull Market

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 06:44:50 GMT

5 December 2025

INN: Silver Price Surges Past US$60 to Hit New All-time High

Summary

The global precious metals market has recently witnessed a historic milestone. On December 9, 2025, silver prices surged past the US$60 per ounce mark, touching an intraday high of US$60.56. This not only sets a new all-time high but also solidifies silver’s status as the "dark horse" of this year's financial markets. Year-to-date, silver has rallied approximately 100%, far outpacing gold's gain of around 59%. This performance demonstrates that the explosive potential of this "poor man's gold" in the late stages of a bull market has comprehensively surpassed that of traditional safe-haven assets.

Commentary

The primary catalyst is a major shift in the macroeconomic landscape. With markets anticipating a Fed rate cut on December 10 and the expected nomination of the dovish Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair, the outlook for "cheap money" and monetary easing has severely weakened the dollar and boosted inflation-hedging assets.

Supply and Demand Fundamentals Underpinning this rally is a fragile supply structure. Unlike gold, silver is driven by massive industrial demand (solar, EVs, and grid infrastructure), which reached record highs in 2024. The market has faced a supply deficit for four consecutive years—148.9 million ounces in 2024 alone—while Chinese inventories have plummeted to decade lows.

Sentiment and Outlook Market sentiment was further ignited by a recent CME trading outage, which sparked liquidity fears and accelerated capital flows into physical assets. Experts view this as a structural bull market, predicting that strong industrial demand and loose monetary policy will see silver continue to outperform gold through 2026.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 28 November 2025

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 10:04:16 GMT

2025/11/28 MFSP週報

截至 11 月 28 日，MFSP A 與 B 類股本週均錄得 3.36% 的正報酬。月度至今（MTD）報酬率分別為 -2.16% 與 -2.32%，而年度至今（YTD）報酬率則分別達到 8.35% 與 6.44%。

部位配置與分析

基金近期的強勁動能主要受惠於金屬板塊，該板塊為本月表現最佳的資產類別。 貴金屬與工業金屬 的多頭部位報酬尤為豐厚，其中白銀與黃金為績效貢獻最大的前兩大標的。錫金屬亦帶來了正向貢獻。

在 股票市場 方面，基金維持淨多頭佈局，對月度績效產生了正向貢獻。整體股市環境表現穩定；值得注意的是，S&P 500 波動率指數（S&P 500 Volatility Index）的多頭部位出現輕微虧損，這反映出市場波動率下降以及投資人信心的回升。

農業板塊 對本週對績效造成拖累。活牛的多頭部位顯著下跌，而 11 號糖與 5 號白糖的空頭部位亦錄得虧損。總體而言，儘管面臨軟性商品市場的逆風，基金仍有效捕捉了金屬與固定收益市場（澳洲3年期公債與美國10年期公債）的趨勢，成功度過市場波動。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 28 November 2025

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 10:01:28 GMT

2025/11/28 Weekly Update

As of November 28, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 3.36% and 3.36%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -2.16% and -2.32%, while year-to-date returns 8.35% and 6.44%.

Sector Performance and Positioning

The fund’s positive momentum was driven largely by the Metals sector , which served as the top-performing asset class for the month. Long positions in precious and industrial metals were particularly rewarding, with Silver and Gold ranking as the top two individual contributors to performance. Tin also contributed positively.

In the Equity markets , the fund maintained a net long positioning, which contributed positively to the monthly returns. The broader equity environment appeared stable; notably, a long position in the S&P 500 Volatility Index resulted in a slightly loss, suggesting a market environment of decreasing volatility and rising confidence.

However, the Agricultural sector acted as a drag on performance. A long position in Live Cattle was the significant detractor, while short positions in Sugar no. 11 and White Sugar no. 5 also posted losses.

Despite these headwinds in soft commodities, the fund effectively captured trends in metals and fixed income (with gains in Austr. 3-yr and US 10-yr bonds), successfully navigating the market.

輝達對AI持續投資-入股新思科技

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 09:56:23 GMT

2025/12/3 新聞評論

Reuters: Nvidia takes $2 billion stake in Synopsys as AI deal spree accelerates

摘要

輝達繼之前投資Intel、OpenAI與Nokia等戰略性投資，近期再次擴展其AI的版圖。輝達將以每股414.79美元，斥資約20億美元入股晶片設計大廠新思科技。預期輝達利用其EDA工具，將加速在設計AI晶片時的效率，讓即將被打破的摩爾定律，可透過AI技術協助工程師模擬晶片架構最佳化，維持摩爾定律的效率提升。同時也可讓新思科技利用輝達的軟體，優化EDA設計晶片時的多項應用，縮短模擬的時間。兩方雖互為客戶，但此入股的合作是建立在互惠、雙贏的基礎上。根據雙方執行長表示，這個交易並沒有排他性，表示新思科技仍願意與其他晶片商合作。這筆資金是提供選擇輝達的機會，但沒有計畫或承諾會購買輝達的AI晶片。

市場評論與我們的觀點

市場對這場合作案的反應樂觀，輝達12/1上漲1.65%，新思科技上漲4.85%。我們認為，目前輝達佈署從向下延伸GPU晶片的應用，包含AI模型訓練、基礎建設，同時也向上延伸對其GPU的設計效率做投資，增加輝達在AI領域的霸主地位。輝達仍按照公司發展的步調增加對AI的投資，透過這些投資與亮眼的財報，間接駁斥市場看空AI前景的擔憂，與大賣空原型人物貝瑞不斷的質疑，持續鞏固與重要合作夥伴的合作，加速AI的創新投資。

NVIDIA Advances Its AI Leadership Through Strategic Investment in Synopsys

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 09:54:23 GMT

3 December 2025

Reuters: Nvidia takes $2 billion stake in Synopsys as AI deal spree accelerates

Summary

According to reports, Meta is in negotiations to purchase Google's AI chips (Axion and TPUs) worth billions of dollars. The plan involves renting these chips via Google Cloud as early as 2026 and deploying them directly into Meta's own data centers by 2027. Google's Strategic Pivot: This marks a significant shift for Google, moving from keeping its custom silicon exclusively for internal use (or cloud rental) to selling it directly to other tech giants, aiming to capture a portion of the AI hardware market currently dominated by Nvidia. Nvidia’s Rebuttal: In response to the reports, Nvidia issued a statement claiming their technology remains "a generation ahead" of Google's. Nvidia emphasized the versatility and established ecosystem of its GPUs compared to competitors, attempting to reassure investors as its stock faced pressure from the news.

Commentary

This potential alliance is a strategic pivot to break Nvidia’s pricing power. By treating Google as a "second source," Meta gains leverage to lower its massive infrastructure costs. Google, in turn, transforms its internal silicon advantage into a direct revenue stream. Nvidia’s defe nsive response reveals genuine anxiety. While their CUDA ecosystem ensures they remain the "King of Training," the market is bifurcating. Complex model training will stay with Nvidia, but the massive, cost-sensitive market for inference is shifting toward custom chips like Google’s TPU. Nvidia’s dominance isn't over, but its era of unlimited pricing power is facing its first structural check.

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 21 November 2025

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 06:36:04 GMT

2025/11/21 Weekly Update

As of November 21, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of -1.94% and -1.94%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -5.34% and -5.49%, while year-to-date returns 4.84% and 2.99%. During the wide drawdown coming from the tech sectors, MFSP delivered a relatively smooth decline this week.

Sector Performance and Positioning

The fund's systematic positioning notably benefited from short exposures in the Agricultural and Soft Commodities sector. The most significant contributions came from short positions in Cocoa and London Cocoa, which served as the top performing markets MTD. Additional gains were realized through short positions in Corn and Sugar No. 11, validating the fund's bearish trend identification in this space.

In Foreign Exchange , the portfolio successfully captured divergence in global currencies. The fund capitalized on US Dollar strength against the New Zealand Dollar and the Korean Won. This suggests the trend models are effectively tracking specific regional weaknesses against the greenback.

Fixed Income positioning displayed a successful divergence strategy. The fund profited from a Long position in US 10-yr T-Notes while simultaneously generating returns from Short positions in Australian sovereign debt (10-yr and 3-yr bonds). However, the week presented headwinds in Equities and Livestock . Long exposure to the S&P 500 (E-mini) and AI created a drawdown, reflecting broader equity market volatility.

Within the Energy and Metals complexes, results were mixed; while Long Silver positions added value, Long positions in Natural Gas and Industrial Metals (Aluminum, Iron Ore) faced downward pressure. In summary, the fund maintains a diversified posture, successfully leveraging short trends in soft commodities and select sovereign bonds to offset volatility in equity and livestock markets.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 21 November 2025

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 06:36:02 GMT

2025/11/21 MFSP週報

截至 11 月 21 日，MFSP A 和 B 的週績效分別為 -1.94% 和 -1.94%。本月以來的報酬率分別為 -5.34% 和 -5.49%，而年初至今的報酬率則為 4.84% 和 2.99%。在科技板塊面臨大幅回檔之際，MFSP 本週的跌幅相對平穩。

部位配置與分析

基金的系統性佈局顯著受惠於 農產品與軟性大宗商品 板塊的空頭部位。其中最顯著的貢獻來自可可與倫敦可可的空頭部位，這也是本月以來表現最佳的市場。此外，玉米與 11 號糖的空頭部位也獲得獲利，驗證了基金對該領域看空趨勢的判斷。

在 外匯市場 方面，投資組合成功捕捉了全球貨幣的走勢分歧。基金利用美元對紐幣與韓元的強勢獲利。這顯示趨勢模型有效追蹤了特定區域貨幣相對於美元（美金）的疲軟走勢。

固定收益市場 的佈局展現了成功的差異化策略。基金從美國 10 年期公債（T-Notes）的多頭部位獲利，同時也藉由澳洲公債（10 年期與 3 年期）的空頭部位創造回報。然而，本週在 股票與牲畜 板塊面臨逆風。S&P 500（E-mini）與 AI 相關標的的多頭曝險造成了淨值回檔，反映出更廣泛的股市波動。

在 能源與金屬 板塊方面，結果好壞參半；雖然白銀多頭部位帶來貢獻，但天然氣與工業金屬（鋁、鐵礦砂）的多頭部位則面臨下行壓力。總結來說，基金維持多元化的配置，成功利用軟性大宗商品與特定公債的空頭趨勢，來抵銷些許股票與牲畜市場的波動。

The AI Chip Wars Have Officially Begun

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 06:25:23 GMT

26 November 2025

Reuters: Meta in talks to spend billions on Google's chips, The Information reports
CNBC: Nvidia says its GPUs are a ‘generation ahead’ of Google’s AI chips

Summary

Commentary

AI戰國時代正式開打

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 06:19:24 GMT

2025/11/26 新聞評論

Reuters: Meta in talks to spend billions on Google's chips, The Information reports
CNBC: Nvidia says its GPUs are a ‘generation ahead’ of Google’s AI chips

摘要

據報導，Meta 正進行談判，擬斥資數十億美元採購 Google 的 AI 晶片（Axion 和 TPU）。計畫內容包括最快於 2026 年透過 Google Cloud 租用這些晶片，並於 2027 年直接將其部署至 Meta 自家的資料中心。Google 的策略轉向：這標誌著 Google 的重大轉變，從過去將其客製化晶片僅供內部使用（或透過雲端租賃），轉為直接出售給其他科技巨頭，旨在搶佔目前由 Nvidia 主導的 AI 硬體市場部分份額。Nvidia 的回擊：針對相關報導，Nvidia 發表聲明宣稱其技術仍「領先 Google 一代」。Nvidia 強調其 GPU 與競爭對手相比具備更強的通用性與成熟的生態系，試圖在股價受消息承壓之際安撫投資人。

市場評論

這次潛在的結盟是為了打破 Nvidia 定價權的戰略轉向。透過將 Google 視為「第二供應來源（Second Source）」，Meta 獲得了降低其龐大基礎設施成本的談判籌碼。而 Google 則將其內部的晶片優勢轉化為直接的營收來源。Nvidia 的防禦性回應透露出真正的焦慮。雖然他們的 CUDA 生態系確保了其「訓練之王」的地位，但市場正在分流。複雜的模型訓練仍將留在 Nvidia 平台，但龐大且對成本敏感的「推論」市場正轉向 Google TPU 這類客製化晶片。結論： Nvidia 的霸主地位尚未結束，但其擁有無上限議價能力的時代正由首波結構性的制衡所打破。

Debunking the AI Bubble Myth: NVIDIA’s Blowout Earnings Shatter Bearish Narratives

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 07:24:38 GMT

19 November 2025

CNBC: Nvidia shares rise on stronger-than-expected revenue, forecast

Background

NVIDIA’s third-quarter earnings, released yesterday, once again crushed market fears of an “AI bubble.” CEO Jensen Huang demonstrated with undeniable results that the AI boom is far from cooling—in fact, it has entered an even stronger phase of acceleration.

NVIDIA reported Q3 revenue of USD 57.01 billion, up 62% YoY, surpassing the high end of its guidance (60% YoY). EPS came in at USD 1.30, beating the market’s upper estimate of USD 1.25. The data center segment remained the company’s primary growth engine, delivering USD 51.2 billion, a 66% YoY increase. With Blackwell chips still in an extreme supply shortage and exhibiting exponential growth, Huang noted that the intensity of demand is “unbelievable.” He further highlighted that combined orders for Blackwell and the next-generation Rubin platform are expected to reach USD 500 billion from now through the end of next year. NVIDIA’s results and Huang’s commentary once again dispelled the notion of an AI bubble.

Commentary

NVIDIA’s earnings reaffirm that AI hardware demand remains exceptionally strong, with the market still in a supply-constrained environment. The primary bottleneck for AI today lies in power and infrastructure, not demand. NVIDIA is aggressively investing in AI infrastructure, pursuing partnerships not only in hardware, but also in upstream infrastructure and downstream software applications—evolving far beyond a chip manufacturer to become a driving force in building a sustainable AI ecosystem.

We believe that bearish calls on AI remain premature. While AI applications are not yet fully deployed across all sectors, they are increasingly integrated into both enterprise operations and daily life, indicating significant long-term growth potential.

As with any emerging technology cycle, periods of overestimation or temporary setbacks are inevitable. However, the overall direction of AI development remains firmly on track. Investors may consider taking advantage of market pullbacks as opportunities to participate in the next uptrend of the AI cycle.

AI 泡沫謠言破除：輝達優於預期的財報打臉空頭市場

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 07:24:36 GMT

2025/11/19 新聞評論

CNBC： Nvidia shares rise on stronger-than-expected revenue, forecast

背景

輝達昨日公布的第三季財報，再次以驚人的業績粉碎近期市場關於「AI 泡沫化」的疑慮。執行長黃仁勳用實力證明，AI 狂潮不僅沒有退燒，反而進入了更強勁的增長階段。

Nvidia第三季營收達570.1億美元，年增62%，超越財測高標年增60%，EPS1.3美元也高於市場預期1.25美元的高標。輝達的資料中心部門仍是主要營收來源，第三季達512美元，年增66%，再加上Blackwell銷售仍供應不求，呈現指數性成長，黃仁勳也表示，強勁的需求令他無法置信，今年至明年底，Blackwell與下一代的Rubin訂單能見度高達5000億美元。輝達財報與黃仁勳的說法再次澄清目前AI未有泡沫現象。

市場評論

輝達的財報再次證明AI硬體需求仍高漲，目前仍處在供不應求的狀態，且AI的問題主要在電力基礎建設上，輝達也積極在AI基礎設施上布局。我們認為輝達除了供應AI的硬體設備，也積極洽談上游的基礎建設、下游的AI軟體應用等合作，並非僅專注生產AI晶片，帶動整個AI生態圈往永續發展前進。目前看空AI趨勢皆言之過早，在 AI應用上，儘管還未全面落實，但已逐漸在企業與生活周遭開始應用，代表未來還有很大的發展空間。市場發展新技術時難免會有不如預期或高估的狀況，但我們認為發展的大致方向仍在軌道上，投資人可適時在回落時參與下次的上漲行情。

加密貨幣市場市值六周蒸發超過 1 兆美元，科技泡沫破滅隱憂浮上檯面

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 07:37:47 GMT

2025/11/19 新聞評論

The Guardian:https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/nov/18/crypto-market-tech-bubble-bitcoin-price-ai-boom

背景

受到「AI 科技泡沫」恐懼蔓延與美國聯準會「降息預期落空」的雙重打擊，全球金融市場正經歷一場嚴峻的資產拋售潮。在過去短短六週內，加密貨幣市場遭受重創，市值蒸發超過 1 兆美元（約 7,600 億英鎊），整體縮水幅度達四分之一。比特幣價格同步重挫 27%，跌至 91,212 美元，創下自今年四月以來的最低水平。這波跌勢並非孤立事件，而是與全球股市的廣泛回調同步發生，顯示投資人正急於撤出各類高風險資產。

市場評論

股市方面，賣壓橫跨歐美亞三地。英國富時 100 指數連跌四日，歐洲 Stoxx 600 下跌 1.8%，華爾街三大指數（道瓊、那斯達克、S&P 500）跌幅均約 1%。亞洲市場傷勢尤重，日經指數單日重挫 3.2%，香港恆生指數亦下跌 1.7%。市場情緒急凍的核心原因，來自多位重量級業界領袖對 AI 熱潮的罕見示警。Google 母公司 Alphabet 執行長 Sundar Pichai 直言，當前的 AI 榮景存在明顯的「非理性」成分，並嚴厲警告若泡沫破裂，「沒有任何公司能置身事外」，即便是 Google 自己也無法倖免。摩根大通副董事長 Daniel Pinto 亦指出，AI 板塊估值過高，修正勢在必行，這將連帶衝擊整體 S&P 指數。

Klarna 執行長 Sebastian Siemiatkowski 則點出了更深層的結構性風險。他不僅對輝達（Nvidia，市值曾破 4 兆美元）、蘋果等科技巨頭的高估值感到緊張，更擔憂鉅額資金正盲目投入硬體基礎設施（如資料中心）。他特別強調了一個常被忽視的危機：透過指數基金的自動化配置機制，大眾的「退休金」正不知不覺地大量曝險於這個可能過熱的趨勢中，缺乏深思熟慮的風險控管。根據美國銀行的最新調查，高達 45% 的受訪基金經理人已將「AI 泡沫」視為當前市場最大的尾部風險（Tail Risk）。

此外，總體經濟環境也不容樂觀。由於市場預期聯準會下月降息的可能性大幅降低，高利率環境持續壓抑不孳息資產的吸引力，導致傳統避險資產黃金也遭拋售，價格下跌 0.3% 至每盎司 4,033 美元。不過，瑞銀（UBS）分析師 Giovanni Staunovo 提出相對樂觀的看法，他認為隨著各國央行持續購金分散風險，加上未來幾季聯準會仍有降息空間，金價有望在近期觸底後展開反彈。

Crypto market sheds more than $1tn in six weeks amid fears of tech bubble

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 07:33:00 GMT

19 November 2025

The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/nov/18/crypto-market-tech-bubble-bitcoin-price-ai-boom

Background

Battered by the dual impact of spreading fears over an "AI tech bubble" and fading expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve "rate cut," global financial markets are experiencing a severe asset sell-off. In just the past six weeks, the cryptocurrency market has been hit hard, with over $1 trillion (approx. £760 billion) in market capitalization evaporating—a shrinkage of one-quarter overall. Simultaneously, the price of Bitcoin plunged 27% to $91,212, hitting its lowest level since April of this year. This decline is not an isolated event but is occurring in sync with a broad correction in global stock markets, indicating that investors are rushing to exit various high-risk assets.

Commentary

In the stock markets, selling pressure has spanned Europe, the Americas, and Asia. The UK's FTSE 100 index fell for four consecutive days, Europe's Stoxx 600 dropped 1.8%, and Wall Street's three major indices (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500) all fell by approximately 1%. Asian markets were hit particularly hard, with the Nikkei 225 plummeting 3.2% in a single day and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropping 1.7%. The core reason for this freezing market sentiment stems from rare warnings issued by several heavyweight industry leaders regarding the AI boom. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google's parent company Alphabet, bluntly stated that the current AI boom contains obvious elements of "irrationality," sternly warning that if the bubble bursts, "no company is going to be immune," not even Google itself. Daniel Pinto, Vice Chairman of JPMorgan Chase, also noted that valuations in the AI sector are excessive and a correction is inevitable, which will subsequently impact the broader S&P index.

Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski highlighted deeper structural risks. He is not only nervous about the high valuations of tech giants like Nvidia (whose market cap once breached $4 trillion) and Apple but is even more concerned about the massive sums being blindly poured into hardware infrastructure, such as data centers. He specifically emphasized an often-overlooked crisis: through the automated allocation mechanisms of index funds, the general public's "pensions" are unknowingly heavily exposed to this potentially overheating trend, lacking thoughtful risk management. According to the latest survey by Bank of America, 45% of surveyed fund managers now view the "AI bubble" as the biggest "tail risk" in the current market.

Furthermore, the macroeconomic environment remains pessimistic. As market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month have significantly diminished, the high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress the appeal of non-yielding assets, leading to a sell-off in gold—a traditional safe-haven asset—with prices falling 0.3% to $4,033 per ounce. However, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo offered a relatively optimistic view, believing that as central banks continue to purchase gold to diversify risk, and with the Fed still having room to cut rates over the coming quarters, gold prices are expected to rebound after bottoming out soon.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 14 November 2025

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 07:03:26 GMT

2025/11/14 MFSP週報

截至 11 月 14 日，MFSP A 與 B 本週表現均為 -2.38%。月初至今報酬分別為 -3.46% 與 -3.62%，今年以來則分別累積 6.91% 與 5.02%。

基金本週走勢波動明顯，在多個板塊出現反轉的情況下，月內整體仍呈現小幅回落。市場價格表現震盪，農產品與金屬類市場波動尤為突出。貴金屬方面，黃金、白銀及大阪黃金的多頭部位帶來正報酬，主要受惠於週後段避險需求的重新升溫。能源部位表現則較為分化，其中 Henry Hub 天然氣的空頭部位拖累績效，其他相關曝險則相對穩定。農產品市場呈現更大差異，紐約與倫敦可可的空頭部位在週初錄得收益，但肥牛與羅布斯塔咖啡的多頭曝險則拖累整體表現。利率市場上，澳洲 3 年與 10 年公債空頭曝險具有方向性貢獻，反映市場對利率走勢仍存不確定性。外匯方面則有小幅正面貢獻，主要來自美元/韓元的多頭部位。儘管部分市場帶來正向貢獻，但基金在 11 月 14 日受到金屬回檔與大宗商品普遍轉弱的影響而出現明顯拉回。不過，本基金的跌幅相較月初仍屬可控，而多元化部位分布也有助於平衡整體方向性風險。近期美股雖有回檔，但整體仍屬於健康調整，更像是風險重新配置，而非結構性反轉。利率與商品市場的現行趨勢仍持續提供操作機會，有助支持策略的穩健性與韌性。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 14 November 2025

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 07:02:14 GMT

2025/11/7 Weekly Update

As of November 14, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of -2.38% and -2.38%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at -3.46% and -3.62%, while year-to-date returns 6.91% and 5.02%.

The fund posted a volatile week, ending with a modest month-to-date decline despite reversals across several sectors. Price action remained choppy, with notable swings in agriculturals and metals. Long positions in gold, silver, and Osaka gold contributed positively as precious metals benefited from renewed safe-haven demand late in the week. Energy exposures were mixed, with short Henry Hub gas detracting, while other positions remained relatively stable. Agricultural markets showed the widest dispersion. Shorts in cocoa and London cocoa delivered gains early in the period, but long exposures in live cattle and robusta coffee weighed on overall attribution. Interest-rate positions were directionally supportive, particularly shorts in Australian 3-year and 10-year government bonds, reflecting persistent rate-path uncertainty. FX contributed modestly, led by the long USD/KRW position. Despite constructive contributions in several pockets, the fund experienced a meaningful setback on November 14, driven largely by broad commodity softness and a pullback in metals. The portfolio’s drawdown remains contained relative to earlier in the month, and the diversified positioning continues to balance directional risk. While U.S. equities have recently retreated, the decline appears orderly and consistent with broader risk-rebalancing rather than a structural shift. Current trends across rates and commodities continue to offer opportunities, supporting confidence in the strategy’s resilience.

SoftBank Sells Nvidia Stake for $5.8 Billion to Fund AI Bets

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 08:26:36 GMT

12 November 2025

Yahoo finance: SoftBank Sells Nvidia Stake for $5.8 Billion to Fund AI Bets

Background

On November 11, SoftBank Group fully liquidated its holdings in NVIDIA, cashing out nearly USD 5.8 billion. Together with CoreWeave—in which SoftBank holds about 7%—cutting its full-year guidance, tech stocks fell broadly, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 2.48% and reigniting concerns over AI’s elevated valuations.

SoftBank explained that the sale was part of an asset monetization strategy. In addition to selling its NVIDIA shares, SoftBank also reduced its stake in T-Mobile and secured a margin loan backed by its Arm Holdings shares. The proceeds will be used to fund a USD 22.5 billion investment in OpenAI and to advance its “Physical AI” initiative, which includes the acquisition of ABB’s robotics division

Commentary

The market has taken a cautious stance toward SoftBank’s divestment of NVIDIA shares. However, analysts note that SoftBank and NVIDIA remain deeply intertwined, with close technological collaboration across major projects such as the USD 500 billion “Stargate” U.S. data center initiative and Ampere Computing. This suggests that SoftBank’s “All in AI” strategy remains unchanged, and that the sale was likely intended to raise capital rather than to exit the AI sector.

Meanwhile, AMD CEO Lisa Su continues to project a bullish outlook for AI, forecasting that AMD’s overall revenue could grow at an annual rate of 35% over the next three to five years, which boosted AMD shares by 5.89% in after-hours trading.

We believe that it is premature to call for an AI valuation correction. AI infrastructure continues to expand capacity, and AI applications are extending into real-world use cases, not merely visionary concepts—demand and valuation growth remain aligned. The greater concern lies in energy supply, as AI’s enormous power consumption requires massive and stable electricity to operate. Whether future power supply can keep pace with AI’s soaring demand—and how governments shape energy policy in response—will be critical areas to watch.

軟銀集團為了AI籌錢出售輝達股票套現58億美元

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 08:26:34 GMT

2025/11/12 新聞評論

軟銀集團在11/11全數出清輝達的持股，套現近58億美元，加上輝達持股約7%的CoreWeave下修全年財測，科技股下挫導致費半指下跌2.48%，再度引發市場AI高估值的疑慮。軟銀集團解釋，此舉是資產變現的策略，除了出售輝達股票，同時處分部分T-Mobile 持股，並以持有的 Arm股份辦理保證金貸款，這些資金將用在對OpenAI投資的225億美元上，並實現「實體AI」計畫–收購ABB 機器人事業。

市場對於軟銀出售輝達持股持保守看法，觀察軟銀仍與輝達有深度的合作，技術層面仍緊密的連結，包含5,000億美元的星際之門、美國資料中心計畫、Ampere運算等，軟銀的「All in AI」的計畫不變，比較相信此次賣輝達的股票是為了籌錢。AMD執行長蘇姿丰(Lisa Su)也持續釋出AI的利多前景，認為AMD在未來三至五年的整體營收可以年增35%的速度成長，這也激勵AMD盤後上漲5.89%。我們認為，目前看空AI估值言之過早，AI基礎建設仍持續擴充產能，且AI有延伸至應用端，並非僅是願景，需求跟估值同步上漲。電力來源是相對需要擔心的部分，因為AI作為一個吃電怪獸，需要龐大且穩定的電力維持運轉，未來電力的供給是否能趕上需求，以及政府的能源政策態度須持續關注。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 7 November 2025

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 05:43:04 GMT

2025/11/7 Weekly Update

As of October 31, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 0.78% and 0.78%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at +3.57% and +3.40%, while year-to-date returns reached +10.67% and +8.89%.

During the last week of October, global markets rose. In Europe, the UK increased 0.743%, Germany decreased 1.162%, while France declined 1.271%. In the U.S., the S&P 500 rose 0.714%, the Dow Jones advanced 0.754%, and the NASDAQ climbed 2.241%. In Asia, Korea’s KOSPI surged 4.209%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 6.312%, Shanghai rose 0.113%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng decreased 0.969%, and Taiwan’s TAIEX increased 2.546%.

The fund ended the final week of October slightly higher. Within commodities, long positions in gold, silver, and platinum contributed early in the week but retraced as precious metals consolidated. Short exposures in Sugar No. 11 and White Sugar No. 5 added modest gains, while losses from soybean meal shorts and livestock longs weighed slightly on overall returns. Energy exposure stayed balanced, with small shorts in natural gas and selective longs in Nordic power and crude palm oil offsetting part of the volatility. The fund maintained constructive long positions in aluminium, supported by improving industrial sentiment. While CTA strategies overall faced a pullback during the week, equity markets—particularly in the United States and Taiwan—showed notable strength. This provided supportive momentum to the fund’s diversified holdings and helped stabilize returns. Overall, risk allocation remained balanced and margin usage moderate, as the systematic trend-following approach continued to emphasize medium-term opportunities with controlled volatility.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 7 November 2025

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 05:41:43 GMT

2025/11/7 MFSP週報

截至 2025 年 11 月 7 日，MFSP A 與 B 的週報酬分別為 -1.11% 與 -1.28%。月初至今報酬率亦分別為 -1.11% 與 -1.28%，年初至今報酬率則為 9.51% 與 7.58%。

在 11 月的第一週，全球股市普遍下跌。歐洲方面，英國下跌 0.357%，德國下跌 1.621%，法國下跌 1.271%。美國方面，S&P 500 下跌 1.629%，道瓊工業指數下跌 1.211%，NASDAQ 指數下跌 3.037%。亞洲市場中，韓國 KOSPI 下跌 3.743%，日本日經 225 下跌 4.073%，中國上證指數上升 1.081%，香港恒生指數上升 1.294%，台灣加權指數下跌 2.061%。

過去一週，全球股市持續波動，受美國政府史上最長停擺影響，全球股價普遍回落。MFSP 小幅下跌，使得月初至今報酬率分別在 -1.11% 與 -1.28%。績效主要受惠於農產品與外匯部位的獲利，特別是阿拉比卡咖啡多單與紐元兌美元空單表現亮眼。相對地，能源與金屬板塊略為拖累，尤其是銅與原油的多頭部位表現疲弱。整體投資組合仍保持良好分散，長短倉配置均衡，風險控制穩健，回撤幅度優於整體市場。展望後市，市場走勢仍將受到美國通膨數據與主要央行利率政策預期影響，波動性料將持續。建議投資人密切關注利率與外匯部位風險，因宏觀不確定性仍然存在。

巴菲特的最後一舞-2025年股東信

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 08:22:04 GMT

2025/11/11

巴菲特2025年股東信：堅守價值、審慎行動、迎接交棒時刻

美國「股神」華倫・巴菲特於 2025 年 11 月發布最新年度股東信，向投資人闡述波克夏·海瑟威（Berkshire Hathaway）的經營現況、投資原則與未來方向。這封信一如往年充滿智慧，不僅回顧過去的經驗，更對全球投資環境提出深刻觀察。以下為本公司整理的主要重點與投資啟示。

一、持續看好股票長期價值

巴菲特在信中再次強調：「股東資金的絕大部分仍將投資於股票市場」，顯示他依舊堅信 優質企業的長期持有價值 。
儘管波克夏目前持有龐大的現金部位（超過數千億美元），巴菲特指出，這主要是為了等待合理價格的機會，而非轉向保守。對長期投資人而言， 保持耐心、等待價值浮現 仍是核心策略。

二、勇於修正錯誤，行動比等待重要

巴菲特在信中罕見地回顧早期錯誤，例如波克夏最初的紡織業投資，並坦言當年「應該更早行動」。他提醒投資人：「承認錯誤並及時修正，比長期拖延更能保護資本。」

這對投資決策而言，是重要的風險控管思維── 審慎並非不作為，而是在錯誤時果斷行動 。

三、領導交棒進入關鍵階段

巴菲特確認自己將在 2025 年底正式卸任執行長（CEO）一職，由長期被視為接班人的 Greg Abel 接任。他強調，公司治理結構穩健，團隊文化成熟，「波克夏的成功不在於某一人，而在於我們的紀律與原則」。

對投資人而言，這次交棒意味著波克夏將進入「後巴菲特時代」，但整體投資哲學預期將維持一致。

四、警示宏觀風險：財政赤字與貨幣貶值

在宏觀層面，巴菲特警告政策制定者須警惕過度支出與龐大財政赤字。他指出，若政府長期依賴舉債與寬鬆貨幣政策，將可能削弱貨幣購買力。

這一觀點再次反映巴菲特長期以來的憂慮── 通膨與貨幣貶值最終會侵蝕投資報酬 。

五、拓展國際布局，聚焦亞洲與日本市場

巴菲特表示，波克夏未來將持續強化 非美國市場 的投資配置，尤其是對日本商社的持股。他認為，部分亞洲企業具備穩定現金流與合理估值，符合波克夏「價值導向」的標準。

這項策略顯示， 全球化多元配置 將是公司未來成長的另一引擎。

六、給投資人的三項啟示

長期視野：不要被短期市場波動影響，選擇能持續創造現金流的企業。
保持現金彈性：等待好價格是紀律的一部分，而非保守的表現。
關注宏觀風險：資產配置須考量通膨與匯率因素，避免單一市場集中風險。

結語：價值投資精神不變，紀律與耐心依舊是勝出關鍵

儘管巴菲特即將退下第一線，他的投資哲學依然深植於波克夏的文化中——以長期眼光審視價值、以理性判斷取代情緒、以紀律行動應對市場起伏。

在全球市場波動與利率變化的環境下，這些原則對投資人而言，依舊是最可靠的指引。

Warren Buffett's Last Dance - 2025 Shareholder Letter

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 08:22:02 GMT

11 November 2025

Staying True to Value, Acting with Prudence, and Preparing for Transition

In November 2025, legendary investor Warren Buffett released his latest annual shareholder letter, offering insights into Berkshire Hathaway’s business performance, investment philosophy, and future direction. As always, the letter is filled with timeless wisdom — reflecting on past experiences while providing a sharp perspective on the global investment landscape. Below are the key takeaways and investment implications summarized by our firm.

1. Continued Confidence in the Long-Term Value of Equities

Buffett reiterated that “ the substantial majority of shareholder funds will remain invested in equities, ” underscoring his enduring faith in the long-term value of owning high-quality businesses.

Despite Berkshire’s sizable cash holdings—now amounting to several hundred billion dollars—Buffett explained that this is primarily to await the right opportunities , not a sign of turning defensive. For long-term investors, patience and disciplined timing remain essential to realizing value.

2. Courage to Correct Mistakes: Action Over Inaction

In a rare reflection, Buffett revisited early missteps such as Berkshire’s original textile investment, admitting that he “should have acted sooner.” He reminded investors that:“Admitting mistakes and acting promptly protects capital better than delaying indefinitely.”

This statement captures a core principle of prudent investing — being decisive when an investment thesis no longer holds , rather than confusing caution with inaction.

3. Leadership Transition: Entering a New Chapter

Buffett confirmed that he will step down as Chief Executive Officer at the end of 2025, with long-time successor Greg Abel taking over the role. He emphasized the strength of Berkshire’s governance structure and team culture, stating: “Berkshire’s success has never depended on one person, but on discipline and principles.”

For shareholders, this transition marks the beginning of the “post-Buffett era,” though the firm’s core investment philosophy is expected to remain unchanged.

4. Warning on Macroeconomic Risks: Fiscal Deficits and Currency Weakness

On a broader level, Buffett cautioned policymakers against excessive government spending and mounting fiscal deficits . He warned that prolonged reliance on debt and loose monetary policy could weaken the purchasing power of money.

This reflects Buffett’s long-standing concern that inflation and currency debasement ultimately erode real investment returns.

5. Expanding Global Exposure: Focus on Asia and Japan

Buffett noted that Berkshire will continue to increase its exposure to non-U.S. markets , particularly its holdings in Japan’s trading houses. He believes many Asian companies possess stable cash flows and reasonable valuations — well aligned with Berkshire’s value-oriented approach .

This strategy suggests that global diversification will be a key growth driver for the company moving forward.

6. Three Key Lessons for Investors

Think Long Term – Avoid reacting to short-term volatility; focus on businesses that generate sustainable cash flows.
Maintain Cash Flexibility – Holding cash for the right opportunity reflects discipline, not conservatism.
Mind the Macro Risks – Consider inflation and currency exposure in portfolio allocation to prevent concentration risk.

Conclusion: Value, Discipline, and Patience Remain the Cornerstones

Even as Buffett prepares to step back from daily leadership, his investment philosophy remains deeply embedded in Berkshire Hathaway’s culture — evaluating businesses through a long-term lens, acting with reason over emotion, and maintaining discipline amid uncertainty.

In an era of market volatility and shifting interest rates, these principles continue to serve as the most reliable compass for investors.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 31 October 2025

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 06:44:12 GMT

2025/10/31 MFSP週報

截至10月31日，MFSP A與B分別錄得本週上漲0.78%與0.78%。月初至今的報酬率分別為+3.57%與+3.40%，年初至今的報酬率則分別達到+10.67%與+8.89%。

在10月最後一週，全球市場普遍上揚。歐洲方面，英國上漲0.743%，德國下跌1.162%，法國下跌1.271%。美國方面，標普500指數上漲0.714%，道瓊工業指數上漲0.754%，那斯達克指數上漲2.241%。亞洲方面，韓國KOSPI大漲4.209%，日本日經225上漲6.312%，上海上證指數微漲0.113%，香港恆生指數下跌0.969%，台灣加權指數上漲2.546%。

基金在10月最後一週小幅上漲。商品方面，黃金、白銀與鉑金的多頭部位在週初帶來正面貢獻，但隨後因貴金屬震盪整理而回吐部分漲幅。糖11號與白糖5號的空單帶來些許收益，而豆粕空單與畜牧多單則略微拖累表現。能源部位保持中性，天然氣的空單及北歐電力與棕櫚油的多單在波動中起到一定對沖效果。基金持續維持鋁的多頭部位，受惠於工業金屬市場信心回升。雖然本週CTA策略普遍回落，但美國與台灣股市表現強勁，為基金的多元化部位提供了上漲動能並穩定了整體績效。整體而言，基金的風險配置依然均衡，保證金使用率維持在合理水準，系統化的趨勢追蹤策略持續聚焦於中期機會，同時有效控制波動風險。

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 31 October 2025

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 06:42:49 GMT

2025/10/31 Weekly Update

As of October 31, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of 0.78% and 0.78%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at +3.57% and +3.40%, while year-to-date returns reached +10.67% and +8.89%.

A Cool-Headed Look at the AI Frenzy: What Burry’s Short and Palantir’s Earnings Reveal

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 06:35:17 GMT

5 November 2025

Anue：https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6218736

https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6216706

Background

Recently, market attention has turned to Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management after disclosures showed large bearish bets on Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). Burry, famed for his contrarian “Big Short,” allocated over 80% of his portfolio to put options on these two AI darlings—an unmistakable sign of skepticism amid the ongoing tech euphoria.

At the same time, Palantir’s latest Q3 earnings told a very different story. The company delivered strong results, with both revenue and profit exceeding expectations, while raising its full-year guidance. This contrast between Burry’s pessimism and Palantir’s performance underscores a key market ten sion—strong fundamentals vs. stretched valuations.

Commentary

From an investment perspective, AI-related stocks remain the market’s hottest theme. However, the widening gap between valuation and actual profitability has created a more divided sentiment. Institutional investors’ growing use of hedging strategies suggests a rising sense of caution toward the “AI miracle.” Without fresh catalysts or sustained earnings momentum, short-term volatility or corrections appear increasingly likely.

Overall, the AI industry still holds solid long-term growth potential, but the near-term market may favor companies with more stable fundamentals and reasonable valuations. Fo r investors, rational stock selection and risk control are now more critical t han chasing momentum.

AI 熱潮下的冷思考：Burry 做空與 Palantir 財報釋出的啟示

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 06:30:26 GMT

2025/11/5 新聞評論

Anue：https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6218736

https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6216706

近期市場焦點集中在「空軍之王」Michael Burry 旗下 Scion Asset Management 的最新持股動向。根據報導，Burry 大幅布局 Nvidia（輝達）與 Palantir（PLTR）的賣權部位，押注這兩檔熱門 AI 股可能面臨修正，金額占其投資組合八成以上。這一舉動在科技股狂熱氛圍中，無疑投下了一顆冷靜的震撼彈。

另一方面，Palantir 公布的第三季財報卻相當亮眼。公司營收與獲利均超越市場預期，並上修全年展望，顯示 AI 相關業務的實際需求仍強勁。這樣的表現與 Burry 的看空立場形成鮮明對比，也揭示市場現階段的矛盾——基本面成長與高估值風險並存。

從投資角度來看，AI 概念股的熱度仍高，但高估值與獲利能力間的落差，讓市場情緒轉趨分歧。專業資金的避險操作顯示，投資人應對「AI 神話」保持警覺。未來若沒有新的技術突破或獲利支撐，短線震盪或修正的機率將升高。

整體而言，AI 產業長期成長潛力依舊，但短期內資金將更偏向基本面穩健、估值合理的企業。對投資者而言，理性選股與風險控管，將比盲目追高更為關鍵。

輝達GTC大會

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 08:11:12 GMT

2025/10/30 新聞評論

Reuters： Nvidia hits $5 trillion valuation as AI boom powers meteoric rise

輝達在今年的GTC大會再度聲明，AI並沒有泡沫化，所有AI的基礎建設正如火如荼的進行，並且積極建立美國本土製造的產業鏈。黃仁勳看好未來五個季度，輝達的晶片營收將上看5000億美元，包含Blackwell系列與Vera Rubin系列。目前黃仁勳積極布局AI應用，第一，輝達與諾基亞結盟，宣布投資諾基亞10億美元，並共同開發新一代6G領域，將輝達的AI晶片與基礎設施導入諾基亞的資料中心技術，跨足電信業增加國家重要的基礎建設；第二，輝達與鴻海、Stellantis、Uber合作，達成可以導入AI技術的自駕計程車目標。

我們認為這與過去的網路泡沫不同的是，AI的發展可延伸至實際應用，並非單純增加在投資的總額上。黃仁勳認為，目前的AI模型十分強大，會讓使用者願意付費使用，所以涉及AI的產業才有指數級的增長，且模型可以透過訓練增加準確性，也更能實際幫助到使用者，讓使用者增加外也更樂意付費，推升整體的算力需求，屬於一個正向循環。CSP廠對AI的資料中心與算力需求仍相當大，近期微軟、Google、Meta又再次上修2026年的資本支出，需求仍不斷地全面上升。以目前的情勢，在AI應用與需求端的暢旺下，將帶動AI製造業與基礎建設的產值增加，電子業的製造與AI的應用將主導國家的經濟發展。

Nvidia GPU Technology Conference

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 08:09:05 GMT

30 October 2025

Reuters: Nvidia hits $5 trillion valuation as AI boom powers meteoric rise

Background

At this year’s GTC conference, NVIDIA once again emphasized that there is no AI bubble, asserting that the construction of AI infrastructure is progressing vigorously while the company actively builds a U.S.-based manufacturing supply chain. Jensen Huang expressed optimism that over the next five quarters, NVIDIA’s chip revenue could reach as high as USD 500 billion, driven by its Blackwell and Vera Rubin series.

Huang has also been aggressively expanding into AI applications:

First, NVIDIA has partnered with Nokia, announcing a USD 1 billion investment to jointly develop next-generation 6G technologies. The collaboration integrates NVIDIA’s AI chips and infrastructure into Nokia’s data center technology, allowing NVIDIA to extend into the telecommunications sector and strengthen critical national infrastructure.

Second, NVIDIA is collaborating with Foxconn, Stellantis, and Uber to advance the deployment of AI-powered autonomous taxis.

Commentary

We believe this differs from the dot-com bubble of the past in that AI’s growth extends to tangible, real-world applications, rather than being driven purely by speculative investment. According to Jensen Huang, today’s AI models are powerful enough to deliver real value, making users willing to pay for their use. This creates exponential industry growth, as model training continuously improves accuracy and utility—further reinforcing user adoption and fueling demand for computing power in a positive feedback loop.

Cloud service providers (CSPs) continue to show strong demand for AI data centers and computing power. Recently, Microsoft, Google, and Meta all raised their capital expenditure forecasts for 2026, signaling ongoing robust growth. Given current trends, the surge in AI applications and demand is expected to drive greater output in AI manufacturing and infrastructure, positioning electronics production and AI applications as the core engines of national economic growth.

PAM MFSP Weekly Update – 24 October 2025

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 08:32:51 GMT

2025/10/24 Weekly Update

As of October 24, MFSP A and B posted weekly performances of -0.59% and -0.59%, respectively. Month-to-date returns stood at +2.76% and +2.60%, while year-to-date returns reached +9.82% and +8.05%.

During the fourth week of October, global markets rose. In Europe, the UK increased 3.111%, Germany rose 1.716%, while France gained 0.629%. In the U.S., the S&P 500 rose 1.916%, the Dow Jones advanced 2.201%, and the NASDAQ climbed 2.314%. In Asia, Korea’s KOSPI surged 5.140%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 3.610%, Shanghai rose 2.879%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 3.616%, and Taiwan’s TAIEX was nearly increased 0.842%.

It was a challenging week for the fund. CTA strategy recorded four consecutive days of negative returns between October 21 and October 24, 2025, with recent volatility slightly erasing part of the earlier monthly gains. Despite broad-based strength in global equities, MFSP slightly declined as of October 24. Month-to-date performance attribution shows that the Equities sector remained the primary positive contributor. The fund continues to maintain a net long position in equities, with key exposures in large-cap technology, semiconductors, blockchain, and electric car industries. While equities performed well, results across other sectors were mixed. The Metals sector, a strong positive driver earlier in the month, posted a negative return for the week. Long positions in Gold (including Osaka), Platinum, and Silver were the main laggards. Meanwhile, Agricultural commodities detracted notably, as short positions in Palladium and Soybean Meal, along with long positions in Lean Hogs and Live Cattle, all contributed negatively to overall performance. Looking ahead, market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as investors balance easing inflation pressures with ongoing geopolitical and policy uncertainties. MFSP continues to favor high-quality growth sectors, particularly within technology and semiconductors, where earnings momentum and structural tailwinds remain intact.

PAM MFSP 週報 – 24 October 2025

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 08:30:17 GMT

2025/10/24 MFSP週報

截至 2025 年 10 月 24 日，MFSP A 與 B 週報酬率 -0.59% 與 -0.59%。月初至今（MTD）報酬率分別為 +2.76% 與 +2.60%，年初至今（YTD）報酬率則達 +9.82% 與 +8.05%。

十月第四週，全球主要市場普遍上漲。歐洲方面，英國上漲 3.111%，德國上升 1.716%，法國微升 0.629%。美國方面，標普 500 指數上漲 1.916%，道瓊工業指數上升 2.201%，那斯達克指數上漲 2.314%。亞洲市場中，韓國 KOSPI 指數大漲 5.140%，日本日經 225 指數上升 3.610%，中國上海綜合指數上漲 2.879%，香港恆生指數上漲 3.616%，台灣加權指數小幅上升 0.842%。

本週對基金而言相對具挑戰性。CTA 策略於 10 月 21 日至 24 日連續四個交易日下跌，近期市場波動使月初以來的部分漲幅略有回吐。儘管全球股市普遍走強，截至 10 月 24 日，MFSP 基金仍小幅下跌。從月度績效分析顯示，股票部位仍為主要正向貢獻來源。基金持續維持股票淨多頭部位，重點配置於大型科技、半導體、區塊鏈及電動車等產業。雖然股票表現穩健，其他資產類別表現則較為分歧。金屬類資產雖於月初為強勁的正面驅動因素，但本週轉為負向貢獻，主要因黃金（含大阪黃金）、白金與白銀的多頭部位表現不佳所致。同時，農產品類資產亦顯著拖累績效，其中鈀金與豆粕的空頭部位，以及瘦肉豬與活牛的多頭部位，皆對整體報酬造成負面影響。展望未來，市場情緒仍維持審慎樂觀，投資人持續在通膨壓力緩解與地緣政治及政策不確定性之間尋求平衡。MFSP 將持續看好高品質成長型產業，特別是科技與半導體領域，其獲利動能與結構性成長趨勢仍具支撐力。

信貸市場的詐欺議題

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 05:46:10 GMT

2025/10/22 新聞評論

Reuters： Investor behind Zions, Western Alliance bad loans is tied to $270 million in troubled debt

Reuters： Meta in $27 billion financing deal with Blue Owl Capital for Louisiana data center

繼上月兩家汽車相關廠商倒閉，汽車零件供應商First Brands Group及汽車貸款機構Tricolor Holdings，近期美國有兩家地區型銀行披露嚴重的壞帳，引發市場再次關注信貸議題。Zions Bancorp與Western Alliance Bancorp在上周四表示遭到信貸詐欺，放款給投資不良商業房貸基金的過程中遭遇詐欺，提供同一批借款人信貸時，控訴抵押票據被暗中移轉、承貸時提供偉造的文件，使抵押品的實際價值遠低於審核要求等，致使Zions Bancorp提列5,000萬美元，且Western Alliance Bancorp已在8月提起訴訟。

市場在消息出來後的反應，10/16當天除了兩間銀行的股價重挫之外，Zions Bancorp下跌13%、Western Alliance Bancorp下跌11%，標普地區型銀行指數也暴跌6.3%，同時也波及大型銀行，花旗與美國銀行各下跌3.53%與3.52%，令市場再次想起2023年Silicon Valley Bank突然倒閉的噩夢，VIX上升至25.31，摩根大通的執行長Jamie Dimon近日以蟑螂效應警示目前的信貸風險，警告過去信貸標準過於鬆散，過度放貸對經濟的衝擊可能會因經濟轉弱而爆發。周五隨著市場解讀此次的信貸詐欺只是信貸市場過熱下的零星個案，逐漸消化信貸危機的憂慮，目前壞帳的狀況仍在可控範圍內，不足以構成系統性風險，美股周五普遍走高，仍不減AI的多頭氣勢，並在本周持續向歷史新高靠近，VIX也在本周下降至17左右。

我們認為此次信貸詐欺事件須持續關注，儘管市場已反映相關顧慮並修正，但不可否認的是信貸市場已有過熱的現象，尤其是私募信貸逐漸蓬勃。私募信貸是在金融海嘯，傳統銀行的借貸審核趨緊後，但企業借貸資金的需求仍在，故透過非銀行金融機構借貸的私募信貸應運而生。截至今年6月底，全球私募信貸市場規模已達約 2 兆美元。在科技公司對AI發展所需的巨額資金下，未來企業的資金需求只增不減，10/22有一項史上規模最大的私募信貸交易，Meta與Blue Owl Capital宣布成立270億美元規模的合資企業，共同開發Hyperion資料中心，積極布局AI基礎設施。

The issue of fraud in the credit market

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 05:40:56 GMT

22 October 2025

Reuters: Investor behind Zions, Western Alliance bad loans is tied to $270 million in troubled debt

Reuters: Meta in $27 billion financing deal with Blue Owl Capital for Louisiana data center

Background

Following the bankruptcy of two auto-related companies last month — auto parts supplier First Brands Group and auto loan provider Tricolor Holdings — two U.S. regional banks recently disclosed significant bad debts, reigniting market concerns over credit risks. Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp announced last Thursday that they had been victims of credit fraud in connection with lending to poorly managed commercial real estate funds. The banks alleged that the same group of borrowers transferred mortgage notes without disclosure, provided falsified documents during the loan process, and pledged collateral with values far below audit requirements, leading Zions Bancorp to book a $50 million provision and Western Alliance Bancorp to file a lawsuit in August.

Commentary

The market reacted sharply to the news. On October 16, both banks’ shares plummeted — Zions Bancorp fell 13% and Western Alliance Bancorp dropped 11% — dragging the S&P Regional Banking Index down by 6.3%. The selloff also hit large banks, with Citigroup and Bank of America sliding 3.53% and 3.52%, respectively. The incident rekindled fears of a repeat of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023, pushing the VIX volatility index up to 25.31. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of a potential “cockroach effect” in credit markets, cautioning that overly loose lending standards in past years could trigger wider economic fallout as growth slows.

By Friday, however, as investors interpreted the fraud cases as isolated incidents stemming from an overheated credit environment rather than systemic failures, market anxiety eased. The bad-debt situation is still deemed manageable, insufficient to pose a systemic risk. U.S. equities rebounded broadly on Friday, led by AI-related stocks, with indices approaching record highs. The VIX subsequently retreated to around 17 this week.

We believe this credit fraud incident warrants continued monitoring. Although the market has digested much of the concern, it underscores signs of overheating in the credit market, particularly within private credit. Emerging after the global financial crisis, private credit filled the lending gap as traditional banks tightened loan standards while corporate financing needs persisted. As of the end of June 2025, the global private credit market had reached roughly $2 trillion. With AI development demanding massive capital investment, corporate funding needs are expected to keep rising. On October 22, Meta and Blue Owl Capital announced the largest private credit deal in history, forming a $27 billion joint venture to develop the Hyperion Data Center, signaling aggressive expansion into AI infrastructure.

TSMC's 2nm Strategy Strengthened by ASML Orders, Solidifying Its Leading Position

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 09:19:09 GMT

16 October 2025 Industry Analysis

Recent financial and operational news from TSMC confirms its solid leadership in the global semiconductor industry. According to it’s latest conference call, TSMC not only delivered an impressive third-quarter performance but also raised its full-year revenue guidance, all while outlining a clear roadmap for future technology and capacity expansion.

First, TSMC's financial performance is its greatest source of confidence. Based on the conclusions of its earnings call, TSMC's third-quarter gross margin and earnings per share both exceeded expectations. This reflects not only effective cost control but also a healthy utilization rate for its high-end process capacity. Even more encouraging, the company raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 34-36%—the second upward revision this year—clearly signaling strong market demand, particularly from the AI sector.

Second, TSMC's ambition in technology and capacity expansion remains strong. ASML's robust order book indirectly confirms that TSMC is accelerating its expansion efforts. TSMC is not only ASML's largest customer but also holds over 60% of the world's EUV equipment capacity. It plans to continue adding more EUV machines over the next two years to aggressively push its 2nm advanced process. This determination is also reflected in TSMC's increased capital expenditure to $40-42 billion, with about 70% of that allocated to advanced processes.

However, challenges lurk beneath the optimistic outlook. ASML's warning that demand from Chinese customers could drop significantly in 2026 points to geopolitical challenges within the global semiconductor supply chain. Additionally, the high costs of building overseas fabs will continue to affect some gross margins.

In conclusion, TSMC remains the global semiconductor leader, thanks to its excellent financial performance and forward-looking technology investments. Although it may face future geopolitical and overseas cost challenges, its strong growth momentum and continuous technological innovation ensure its future remains full of potential. Furthermore, the company's better-than-expected financial results indirectly provide a boost to the AI market.

從 ASML 訂單看台積電 2 奈米佈局，領先地位更穩固

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 09:12:27 GMT

2025/10/16 產業分析

近日台積電一連串的財報與營運消息顯示，其在全球半導體產業的領導地位依然穩固。從多家媒體報導來看，台積電不僅交出亮眼的第三季成績單，更上修全年營收展望，同時也為未來的技術與產能佈局描繪出清晰藍圖。

首先，台積電的財務表現是其信心的最大來源。根據法說會結論台積電第三季的毛利率與每股盈餘雙雙超乎預期，這不僅反映其成本控制得宜，也顯示高階製程的產能利用率處於健康水平。更令人振奮的是，公司將全年營收成長預期上調至34-36%，這是今年第二次上修，明確釋放出市場需求，特別是來自AI領域的旺盛訊號。

其次，在技術與產能佈局方面，台積電的企圖心也絲毫不減。從艾司摩爾（ASML）的財報中可見，其強勁的訂單狀況間接證實了台積電正加速擴產。台積電不僅是艾司摩爾最大的客戶，更握有全球超過60%的EUV設備產能，並計畫在未來兩年內持續增加EUV機台，全力衝刺2奈米先進製程。這份決心也反映在台積電上調資本支出至400-420億美元，其中約七成將用於先進製程。

然而，在樂觀情緒下也潛藏著挑戰。艾司摩爾對中國客戶在2026年需求可能大幅下滑的警告，預示半導體產業在全球化供應鏈中面臨的地緣政治挑戰。此外，海外設廠的高昂成本也將持續影響部分毛利。

總結而言，台積電憑藉著優異的財務表現與前瞻性的技術投資，依然穩坐全球半導體龍頭寶座。儘管未來可能面臨地緣政治與海外成本的挑戰，但其強勁的成長動能與持續的技術創新，讓其未來發展依然充滿潛力。同時該公司優於預期的財報表現，間接為AI市場打下一劑強心針。

中美近期談判籌碼的相互較量

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 06:42:19 GMT

2025/10/14 新聞評論

BBC： China accuses US of 'double standards' over tariff threat

在本月底 APEC 高峰會召開前，中美貿易議題再度升溫。面對美國對 AI 晶片出口的持續管制，中國近期展開一連串反制措施。10/9 中國宣布強化稀土出口管制，繼對輝達啟動反壟斷調查後，10/10再度針對高通展開調查，並要求各港口加強審查輝達晶片進口。同日，川普則反擊表示，將自11/1起對中國商品加徵 100%關稅，並對所有關鍵軟體實施大規模出口管制。美國貿易代表署（USTR）在同天也宣布，10/14起將對所有中國製造或營運的船舶進入美國港口收取額外費用；中國隨即回應，宣布同日起對美國船隻徵收「特別港務費」以示反制。

在川普宣布關稅制裁的當天，不僅使美股、加密貨幣、原油市場在上周五全面重挫，也使亞股在周一持續承壓。市場普遍解讀中美兩國密集的管制與反制動作，是為 APEC 峰會前的談判預作籌碼。值得注意的是，川普在宣布制裁後的隔日（週日）又出面緩和態度，表示雙方會面並未取消，強調「一切將會好起來」，再度印證市場對「川普終將退縮」（TACO, Trump Always Chickens Out）的看法。受此激勵，美股週一全面反彈，四大指數均收漲，其中費城半導體指數勁揚 4.93%，表現最為亮眼。

我們認為，美股自4月關稅戰以來一路攀升，近幾週美國科技產業在AI基礎建設與長期需求面持續投入高額資金與合作，更推升股市走揚，整體估值已處高檔。市場對中美貿易衝突的敏感度因而升高，本次中美雙方的交互制裁，或正好提供市場一個宣洩獲利與調整部位的契機。

China accuses US of 'double standards' over tariff threat

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 06:36:25 GMT

14 October 2025

BBC: China accuses US of 'double standards' over tariff threat

Background

Ahead of the upcoming APEC summit at the end of this month, U.S.–China trade tensions have once again intensified. In response to Washington’s continued restrictions on AI chip exports, Beijing has launched a series of countermeasures. On October 9, China announced tighter export controls on rare earth materials. Following its antitrust investigation into NVIDIA, Chinese regulators on October 10 opened a new probe into Qualcomm and instructed ports nationwide to step up inspections of NVIDIA chip imports. On the same day, President Trump retaliated by declaring that, starting November 1, a 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese goods, along with broad export controls on all key software technologies. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) also announced that beginning October 14, all Chinese-built or -operated vessels entering U.S. ports would be subject to additional fees. In response, China swiftly introduced a ‘special port fee’ on U.S. ships as a countermeasure.

Commentary

Trump’s tariff announcement triggered a broad market sell-off last Friday, sending U.S. equities, cryptocurrencies, and crude oil prices sharply lower, with Asian markets following the downturn on Monday. Analysts largely interpreted this flurry of trade restrictions and retaliations as a strategic positioning by both sides ahead of APEC negotiations.

Interestingly, Trump struck a more conciliatory tone the following day (Sunday), assuring that the meeting had not been canceled and that ‘everything will be fine.’ The market interpreted this as yet another example of the ‘TACO’ pattern—Trump Always Chickens Out. This shift in sentiment drove a strong rebound in U.S. equities on Monday, with all four major indices closing higher; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.93%, leading the gains.

We believe that since the tariff war in April, the U.S. stock market has been on a steady upward trend. In recent weeks, U.S. technology companies have continued to pour substantial capital and form partnerships in AI infrastructure and long-term demand development, further driving the market higher. As a result, overall valuations have reached elevated levels. Given this backdrop, market sensitivity to U.S.–China trade tensions has increased. The latest round of reciprocal sanctions between the two sides may, in fact, serve as an opportunity for investors to realize profits and rebalance their positions.

輝達黃仁勳表示，他很驚訝 AMD 以「聰明」的方式向 OpenAI 提供了 10% 的公司股份

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 10:19:00 GMT

2025/10/9 新聞評論

CNBC： Nvidia’s Huang says he’s surprised AMD offered OpenAI 10% of company in ‘clever’ deal

近期，美國科技產業掀起一波「循環性投資」熱潮，市場對AI泡沫的疑慮也隨之再度升溫。自5月甲骨文（Oracle）向輝達（NVIDIA）採購價值400億美元的GB200晶片，以滿足OpenAI龐大的算力需求後，9月初OpenAI又與甲骨文簽訂金額高達3000億美元、為期五年（自2027年起）的算力採購合約。緊接著，9月中輝達宣布對OpenAI投資1000億美元，協助其建置10GW等級AI資料中心的基礎設施。近日市場再傳出OpenAI與超微（AMD）合作的消息，OpenAI預計未來採購6GW的AMD晶片，並可用每股1美分的價格取得最多1.6億股AMD認股權，若全數行使將持有約10%的AMD股權。此外，輝達也證實將參與馬斯克旗下AI新創公司xAI的新一輪募資，協助該公司建置採用輝達晶片的AI資料中心。

這一連串科技巨頭間的相互投資，令市場既振奮又憂慮。從產業角度來看，輝達透過與主要AI軟體公司的深度合作，持續擴建AI基礎設施，不僅強化其在全球AI生態系的主導地位，也確保未來晶片需求的穩定成長，並期望以投資者的身份分享長期收益。硬體供應商與軟體開發商的緊密合作，確實為AI產業開創更多投資機會與想像空間。然而，部分投資人仍擔心市場可能重演2000年.com泡沫的情景——當時融資槓桿過度、資金氾濫，而實際技術與獲利未能同步成長。再加上目前美股估值已處高位，使得市場對AI相關投資案仍保持審慎與警戒。

對於當前科技業的循環性投資現象，我們認為未來仍需密切關注AI算力與資金投入之間是否出現脫鉤現象。在防範泡沫化風險的同時，投資人亦應審慎評估AI產業帶來的結構性成長契機，理性參與市場可能的上行動能。

Nvidia’s Huang says he’s surprised AMD offered OpenAI 10% of company in ‘clever’ deal

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 10:09:39 GMT

9 October 2025

CNBC: Nvidia’s Huang says he’s surprised AMD offered OpenAI 10% of company in ‘clever’ deal

Background

Recently, a wave of ‘circular investments’ among major U.S. technology companies has raised renewed concerns in the market about a potential AI bubble. In May, Oracle purchased USD 40 billion worth of NVIDIA GB200 chips to meet OpenAI’s massive computing demand. In early September, OpenAI signed a USD 300 billion, five-year cloud and computing capacity agreement with Oracle, starting in 2027. By mid-September, NVIDIA announced a USD 100 billion investment in OpenAI to support the construction of 10GW AI data centers using NVIDIA’s chips. In recent days, reports also surfaced of a collaboration between OpenAI and AMD, under which OpenAI committed to procure 6GW worth of AMD chips and obtained the right to purchase up to 160 million AMD shares at USD 0.01 per share—representing up to 10% of AMD’s equity if fully exercised. In addition, NVIDIA confirmed plans to take part in the latest fundraising round for Elon Musk’s AI startup, xAI, to help build AI data centers powered by NVIDIA chips.

Commentary

The market is both excited and concerned about this web of cross-investments among tech giants. NVIDIA’s large-scale collaborations with leading AI software companies aim to expand AI infrastructure and computing capacity, further cementing its dominance in the global AI ecosystem and securing future chip demand, while also positioning NVIDIA to capture returns as an investor.

The growing synergy between hardware suppliers and software developers opens new opportunities and imagination for investors in the AI space. However, concerns persist that the situation could mirror the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, when excessive financial leverage led to a disconnect between capital inflows and actual business growth or profitability. With U.S. equity valuations already at elevated levels, investors remain cautious about potential overheating in AI-related investments.

We believe the ongoing cycle of mutual investments among technology firms warrants continued attention. It is crucial to monitor whether the real growth in AI computing power keeps pace with the capital being deployed. Investors should aim to participate prudently in the upward momentum driven by AI innovation, while remaining vigilant against the risk of an emerging investment bubble.

Gold's Perfect Storm

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 08:48:13 GMT

2 October 2025

A September Rally Composed by Safe-Haven Demand and Rate-Cut Hopes

Background

In the September financial markets, the most brilliant star was undoubtedly gold. With a monthly surge of over 11%—its best single-month performance in 13 years—its price is now approaching all-time highs. This aggressive rally was no accident; it was a "perfect storm" created by two major uncertainties in the U.S. political and economic landscape: a political stalemate threatening a government shutdown and weak employment data. This situation not only highlights gold's traditional value as a safe-haven asset but also underscores its sensitivity as an indicator of interest rate expectations.

First, the looming crisis of a U.S. federal government shutdown was the direct trigger that ignited the market's risk-off sentiment. When even the normal operations of the world's most powerful economy become uncertain, that uncertainty ripples outwards. This concern over political dysfunction and its potential economic impact has prompted capital to seek traditional safe harbors. In such a scenario, gold is always the leading actor. Its intrinsic value, which transcends sovereign credit, makes it the ultimate insurance for investors against unknown risks. The surge in gold prices this September was, in effect, the "fear premium" the market paid for this uncertainty.

Second, if the threat of a government shutdown was the push, then weak employment data was the pull, together driving the price of gold to its peak. The soft labor market data is a clear signal of a slowing economy, directly reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. As the report mentioned, the market is pricing in a 97% probability of an October rate cut, which is an almost certain expectation.

This is extremely bullish for gold. Gold itself is a non-yielding asset, and in a high-interest-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding it is relatively high. However, once a rate-cutting cycle begins, the yields on cash and bonds fall, significantly boosting gold's relative attractiveness. The market's behavior of "front-running" these rate-cut expectations became the most potent fuel for the price rally.

Commentary

The current bullish momentum for gold is built upon the twin pillars of "fear" and "expectation." However, investors must also realize that these two pillars are not unbreakable.

Political Variables: If the U.S. government shutdown crisis can be resolved in the short term, the market's safe-haven sentiment will cool rapidly, potentially leading to a profit-taking pullback in gold prices.
Central Bank's Stance: The market's 97% expectation for a rate cut has almost fully priced in the positive news. The key ahead lies in the Fed's actual actions and post-meeting statements. Any signal that is less dovish than expected could trigger a sharp correction in the price of gold.
Data Dependency: Future economic data, particularly inflation and employment reports, will remain central to the Fed's decision-making. Any data demonstrating economic resilience could diminish the urgency for rate cuts.

In conclusion, the great gold rally of September was a feast created by the perfect combination of political-economic risks and monetary policy expectations. It proved once again that in a foggy market environment, gold serves as a dual indicator for both measuring investor anxiety and anticipating central bank direction. Although the short-term outlook is favorable, investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor the development of the variables mentioned above, because the winds propelling gold upward could change direction at any moment.

Taiwan will not agree to 50-50 chip production deal with US, negotiator says

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 07:47:32 GMT

1 October 2025

Reuters: Taiwan will not agree to 50-50 chip production deal with US, negotiator says

Background

Recently, the Trump administration has taken frequent actions to strengthen U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capacity.

From the earlier announcement that TSMC would expand its investment by an additional USD 100 billion—on top of its existing USD 65 billion—to build a total of six wafer fabs, two advanced packaging plants, and a new R&D center, to the U.S. government’s move to exchange chip subsidies for a 10% stake in Intel to support its foundry business and advanced process mass production.

Commentary

Last Saturday, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick further raised the idea of a 50-50 split in making chips between Taiwan and the U.S., arguing that America must have sufficient domestic semiconductor capacity in order to provide immediate protection should China take action against Taiwan. This suggests that Washington is attempting to shift Taiwan’s long-standing ‘silicon shield’ from a unilateral national security safeguard to a shared U.S.–Taiwan security responsibility, pushing to localize Taiwan’s advanced semiconductor processes in the U.S. Otherwise, the U.S. threatens to impose high tariffs as a penalty to accelerate Taiwanese firms’ pace of building fabs and establishing operations in America.

Although Taiwan Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun clarified that the fifth round of in-person negotiations did not include a 50-50 chip capacity proposal, she also stressed that Taiwan would not accept such an arrangement. The negotiations instead focused on ensuring that the 20% tariffs would not be compounded, explored tariff concessions under Section 232, and discussed possible supply chain cooperation. For Taiwan, the key impact lies in how domestic chipmakers allocate resources between Taiwan and the U.S., while facing the challenge of preserving technological advantages, core intellectual property, and operational control under international cooperation. At the same time, it will test how the Taiwanese authorities can leverage existing strengths to secure supply chain agreements that protect the interests of local chipmakers while satisfying Washington’s demands.

U.S. Government Shutdown: News Updates and Analysis of its Far-Reaching Impacts

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 05:51:19 GMT

1 October 2025

The U.S. federal government officially entered a partial shutdown in the early hours of October 1, 2025. With Congress failing to reach a consensus on a temporary spending bill before the midnight deadline, federal agencies have run out of funding, forcing the suspension of numerous non-essential government services and placing hundreds of thousands of federal employees on unpaid furlough. This marks the first government shutdown since January 2019, and the underlying political stalemate, along with its potential ripple effects on the U.S. economy, public welfare, and even global markets, is drawing significant attention.

The core reason for this government shutdown lies in the deep divisions between Senate Democrats and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives over a "Continuing Resolution" (CR) designed to provide short-term government funding.

According to reports, the temporary appropriations bill proposed by House Republicans included several conservative policy demands related to controversial issues such as spending cuts and border security, drawing strong opposition from Democrats. Democrats accused Republicans of prioritizing a partisan agenda over the normal functioning of the country and refused to accept the attached conditions. Republicans, in turn, criticized the Democrats for their perceived weak stance on border issues and the fiscal deficit. With neither side willing to yield, the bill ultimately failed to pass the Senate, and government funding officially lapsed.

Political Consequences and Outlook

A government shutdown is typically seen as a "lose-lose" situation. Polling indicates that regardless of where the blame ultimately falls, overall public trust in both Congress and the White House will be damaged. Both parties will face pressure from their constituents to resolve the impasse quickly and restore normal government operations.

The White House has expressed strong disapproval of the shutdown, warning that it poses a threat to national security and public well-being. Analysts point out that under the "divided government" landscape formed after the 2024 elections, the opposition between the two parties on major issues has become more acute, making budget negotiations exceptionally difficult. This shutdown once again highlights the severe erosion of governmental-governing capacity caused by the current state of political polarization in the United States.

Analysis of Multi-faceted Impact

1. Impact on Federal Employees and Government Services

Approximately 800,000 federal employees deemed "non-essential" will be forced to take unpaid leave. Although Congress has historically provided back pay after a shutdown ends, these families will face immediate financial pressure during the closure.
Federal employees designated as "essential," such as Border Patrol agents, airport security personnel (TSA), and federal law enforcement officers, must continue to work without pay. This is expected to damage morale and could potentially lead to attrition.
The processing of applications for passports, visas, small business loans, and other government services for businesses and individuals will be severely delayed.
National parks, monuments, and museums under the Smithsonian Institution will be forced to close nationwide, dealing a direct blow to the tourism industry.

2. Impact on Social Welfare and Public Programs

Mandatory spending programs such as Social Security and Medicare will not be affected in the short term. However, if the shutdown is prolonged, some programs supported by annual appropriations, such as nutritional assistance and housing aid, could face a funding crisis.
New clinical trials at agencies like the National Institutes of Health (NIH) will not be able to begin, and the frequency of food safety inspections by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may decrease.

3. Economic Impact

Key economic data-releasing agencies, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, may delay the publication of employment reports, inflation data, and other critical statistics due to staffing shortages. This will complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
While the market reaction may be relatively mild in the short term, a prolonged political standoff will increase investor uncertainty, potentially triggering stock market sell-offs and tension in credit markets.
Numerous private companies that rely on government contracts will face payment delays or contract suspensions, which could lead them to lay off employees or scale back operations.
Hundreds of thousands of federal employees, forced to cut back on spending due to lost paychecks, will directly impact consumer-facing sectors like retail and dining. Furthermore, the uncertainty created by the shutdown could broadly suppress consumer confidence.
According to a preliminary estimate from Moody's Analytics, each week of a government shutdown will reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.

Conclusion

The shutdown of the U.S. government has rapid and widespread effects that permeate various corners of the economy, society, and the daily lives of its citizens. The market and the public are closely watching the political developments in Washington, hoping for a breakthrough to end the stalemate as soon as possible to avoid more lasting and severe damage to the U.S. and global economies.

穩定幣介紹

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 00:23:17 GMT

前言

隨著加密貨幣的興起，價格的波動性與資產的安全性備受矚目，近期許多先進國家紛紛通過或正在推行穩定幣的相關法案，各國設計法案時主要目的是鞏固其法定貨幣的主導地位或在國際的金融地位，其餘目的包含促進金融科技創新的發展、保障資金安全與金融穩定、監管發行與用途等，例如：日本在2022年修訂的《支付服務法》(PSA)是最先確立穩定幣的定義與監管架構的先進國家，而後歐盟在2020年通過《加密資產市場監管條例》(MiCA)，並在今年7月全面生效，規範發行多種資產(含貨幣、大宗商品)掛鉤的資產參考代幣(ART)與只和單一貨幣掛鉤的電子貨幣代幣(EMT)之條件；在今年，香港也在5月通過《穩定幣條例》監管虛擬資產，同意有持牌的機構在境內外發行掛勾港幣的穩定幣，鞏固其金融地位；美國在本月也通過《GENIUS法案》，以美元資產作為掛勾，鞏固美國霸權的地位。各國法案逐漸納入穩定幣成為趨勢，以下介紹穩定幣，並在美國通過的穩定幣法案的背景下，探討穩定幣的影響。

穩定幣(Stablecoin)是什麼？

何謂穩定幣？為何需要穩定幣？與比特幣、以太幣等加密貨幣有何不同？

加密貨幣是基於去中心化金融(DeFi)的區塊鏈技術，使用網路點對點(P2P)的交易讓交易快速且低成本的進行，且不須透過中央機構即可安全且透明的紀錄交易，但因為其價格波動劇烈，也對消息面敏感，是具風險性的資產，其價值會因市值變動而變動，相對法定貨幣而言，不具備價值儲存的功能，也不適合做為交易媒介與計價單位；穩定幣雖是屬於加密貨幣的一種，但特點是與特定資產掛勾，代表每一枚穩定幣會透過儲備機制，皆有對等的儲備資產做擔保，故價格相對比特幣、以太幣等加密貨幣比較穩定。

穩定幣的用途與優劣勢：

穩定幣是傳統金融與加密貨幣的橋梁，可作為加密貨幣的計價單位、價值儲存，衡量加密貨幣的價值並可換算成美元計價，使人們更直觀了解加密貨幣的價值，在用途上是以去中心化金融生態為核心基礎，不受傳統金融機構監管的全球通道，故可跨境支付、幾乎零成本的即時結算，並且是投資加密貨幣時資金轉換與避險的工具；另外，穩定幣的利息較傳統機構高，投資者可透過穩定幣放貸，將資金存入幣安等大型加密貨幣交易平台，賺取穩定的被動收入，是新型的理財方式。

儘管穩定幣有許多優勢，但仍面對許多風險與監管問題。在風險上，第一，發行穩定幣的機構如果沒有足夠的資產儲備支撐流動的穩定幣數量，可能面臨信用風險，穩定幣失去價值引發擠兌風險、價格脫鉤甚至崩盤；第二是掛勾資產的波動風險，尤其以加密貨幣作為超額抵押的穩定幣，容易受到價格的劇烈波動影響，如果掛鉤的加密貨幣暴跌，有可能會觸發連鎖清算，影響穩定幣的價值；第三，對於中心化的穩定幣，因為是由單一機構管理，如果儲備資產的資訊不透明，安全性上會有疑慮，存在中心化風險；在監管上，如果缺乏監管單位監管，將可能成為洗錢、詐騙的平台，隨著各國完善穩定幣的法規，可降低不法金流的可能性，目前各國對穩定幣的相關法案多受限在只容許持有牌照的特定機構發行，如果不符合當地法規的要求，可能會限制及停止在國內發行，影響穩定幣的使用與流通性，例如，日本屬於較早規管穩定幣的國家，USDT雖可在日本合法持有與交易，但無法在日本的交易所上架。

穩定幣的類型及目前態勢：

穩定幣的類型是根據掛鉤的方法分類，主要分為以法定貨幣作為儲備的「法幣抵押(如美元) 的穩定幣」、以等值商品作為儲備的「商品抵押(如黃金) 的穩定幣」、以其他加密貨幣超額儲備的「加密貨幣抵押的穩定幣」、透過智能合約或算法，與錨定的資產價格維持之「算法穩定幣」。目前以法定抵押的穩定幣為主，通常以美元、美債作為支撐，維持1:1的掛鉤，Tether 公司自2014年發行的USDT市值約1560億美元，是目前市值最大且最主流的美元穩定幣，USDT與USDC、BUSD皆是中心化穩定幣，是由發行機構集中管理與控制，優點是較符合監管的相關規定，目前USDC是最符合法規的穩定幣，市值約616億美元僅次於USDT，其發行商Circle (CRCL.US)是首間上市的穩定幣發行商，在美國GENIUS法案通過的利多消息下，本月初上市的Circle曾一度上漲超過7倍；然而，為了使與美元掛鉤的穩定幣更加透明，且減少對中心化機構儲備的依賴，Ethena Labs推出USDE，市值排名第五大，約56億美元，其結合中心化與去中心化的概念，利用鏈上協議、自動化機制維持與美元的價格掛勾，並在中心化穩定幣上做避險與資產配置。

加密貨幣抵押的穩定幣以MakerDAO(現改名為SKY)發行的DAI最為著名，目前市值排名第六大，約36億美元，是屬於去中心化的穩定幣，透過智能合約，以超額抵押多種加密資產與美元的掛勾，資訊相對中心化的穩定幣透明，在去年SKY為了改善中心化生態對實體機構的依賴及可能的監管限制風險，推出結合加密貨幣與傳統資產儲備組合的USDS，並以去中心化的金融生態做管理，使其具備法定抵押的穩定性，也具備加密貨幣抵押的資訊透明，目前市值排名第三大，僅次於USDT與USDC，約73億美元。算法穩定幣是使用套利機制，用兩種代幣互相制衡，使穩定幣與美元錨定，完全去中心化且沒有任何資產作為儲備，資本效率雖最高，但風險也最高，UST/LUNA 事件的死亡螺旋是最著名的例子。

穩定幣法案通過的影響：

美國參議院在今年6/17通過監管穩定幣的《GENIUS法案》，定義穩定幣的法律地位，穩定幣歸為支付或結算的工具，並非國家貨幣或是證券，故不可發放利息，適用的法規雖不受證券法約束，但必須遵守消費者保護與反洗錢機制等相關法規；對於發行人限制的規管，允許的發行方包含傳統的金融機構，存款機構並含子公司、聯邦認可的非銀行的發行人、州政府認可且願受監管的發行人(發行量限低於100億美元)，代表穩定幣發行皆要備受監管；對於儲備資產要求只允許1:1的掛勾，且只能使用流動性高的資產作為儲備，如美元、短天期的國庫券與票據債券等，並在每月公開儲備報告、審計財報與公告明確的兌換政策。

從儲備的資產需「完全」是美元資產支持的規定，可發現川普對於穩定幣法案通過的最大目的是為了鞏固美元霸權的地位，也是其贊成加密貨幣作為儲備戰略的原因，過去加密貨幣以去中心化的特點吸引資金流入，市值蒸蒸日上，增加去美元化的速度，如今透過中心化管理，規定掛鉤的儲備資產須是美元資產，讓發行機構每發行一枚穩定幣，就必須購入等價的美元資產，在美國財政部自2023年每月發行1年內到期的短債(T-Bills)與中長期債券的發行量差距逐漸擴大下，因穩定幣法案將促使穩定幣規模日益擴大，儲備需求可吸納逐年增加發行量的短債，解決美國因財政赤字而不斷發行債券的窘境，並將流入加密貨幣的資金重新回流至美元資產，繼續主導世界金融。

目前市值最大的USTD在今年Q1的儲備有81.44%包含美國國庫券、逆回購、貨幣市場基金及現金與存款，最主要的美國國庫券逐季增加，第二大市值的USTC今年Q1儲備美國公債與公債逆回購更高達92.59%，故在法案的激勵與弱勢美元的走勢下，增加發債與壓低利率，可舒緩美國沉重的負債；如若眾議院也通過此法案，對目前兩大市值的穩定幣影響不同，對於Tether發行的USDT而言，由於USTD的儲備來源包含比特幣與貴金屬，在今年Q1的比重各為5.13%與2.99%，不符合法案要求的合規門檻，可能會受到未來趨緊的監管衝擊；對於Circle發行的USDC，儲備資產條件更貼近法規，法案通過有助於Circle的未來前景。目前而言，兩者的儲備資產具高穩定度，相較比特幣等加密貨幣安全，且兩者在全球穩定幣市值佔9成，具主導地位的兩者各有其優勢，USDT的規模最大，市場接受度較高，國際支付的便利性深受新興市場歡迎，USDC的透明度較能被美國監管單位接受，主要在會被美國監管的區域流通。

因穩定幣法案的通過，市場預期穩定幣規模日益擴大，將可能侵蝕傳統支付系統的獲利，讓兩大傳統支付網路巨頭Visa與Mastercard的股價在6/18各跌4.88%與5.39%，但其實他們都正在布局穩定幣，積極打入數位支付世代，增加區塊鏈相關的基礎設施，並將穩定幣整合至現有的支付網路。Visa早在2021年開始試著用自家的VisaNet進行USDC的支付與結算，允許使用者用加密或幣帳戶支付款項，也允取發卡機構與收單機構用穩定幣結算，至今已完成超過2.25億美元的結算，並幫助發卡機構開發穩定幣相關卡片，提供美元與加密貨幣的轉換，目前此類型的卡片已處理超過 1000 億美元的加密貨幣購買與 250 億美元的加密貨幣消費，目前正研擬推出可在區塊鏈上完成智能合約的Visa Tokenized Asset Platform (VTAP) 平台，允許機構發行和管理穩定幣或代幣化存款。Mastercard積極與多家加密交易所、加密錢包與金融創新公司合作，除了推出MetaMask 卡，讓消費者可用存在卡中的加密資產支付，並已在美洲國家上線，也與Visa一樣推出可用USDC結算，另外還與Paxos合作，支援其發行的穩定幣如USDP之結算；在使用者互相傳送穩定幣的便利性上，推出Mastercard Crypto Credential服務，也已在拉丁美洲與歐洲國家上線；在私有區塊鏈的服務中，幫助金融機構或企業發行、銷毀與管理代幣的Multi-Token Network (MTN)平台，有助於未來亞馬遜、沃爾瑪等企業發行自身的穩定幣。

總結

全球穩定幣目前市值已高達2517億美元(截至6/25)，除了2022年發生的UST/LUNA 事件與2023年矽谷銀行破產，市場對加密貨幣的信心下降，其餘穩定幣市值皆呈現穩定的上升趨勢，市場預期隨著美國穩定幣法案通過與日益擴大的規模，將顛覆傳統金融生態，投資人可佈局穩定幣相關概念股，Circle在上市後飆漲，可能發生漲幅過大後的回檔修正，反映真正的價值，因Coinbase是加密或幣交易所，是Circle的長期合作夥伴，Circle長期支付其費用以維持USDC的發行與推廣，預期Coinbase (COIN.US)未來將受惠Cirle (CRCL.US)的上漲趨勢與穩定幣法案通過的利多，有上漲的空間；Visa (V.US)與Mastercard (MA.US)在這次的法案通過，股價備受壓抑，但細看兩家公司皆有整合穩定幣的作為，預期兩大支付網路龍頭未來將可受惠於穩定幣的規模擴大，讓穩定幣參與企業和消費者的商業活動，帶動股價上漲。

AI產業的發展局勢與影響力

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 00:23:17 GMT

前言

在過去，世界主要經濟體相互競爭，曾經將武器、核武或太空發展，作為證明擁有國家主導的實力，近期世界兩大經濟巨頭美國與中國全力角逐AI領域上的霸權地位，美國將半導體發展與運算技術視為國家安全，避免中國威脅其地位，自2022年起對中國頒布晶片禁令，明確說明限制的標準，包含半導體製程的管制與先進設備機台的規格，讓中國的AI發展無法使用最先進的晶片訓練，運算速度也相對較低；然而，Deepseek使用降規版的晶片與低成本訓練震撼全球，讓美國對於防堵中國取得晶片的規格拉高，自今年4/14起，美國政府要求無限期實施H20晶片的出口管制，輝達需取的許可證才可提供中國同等規格的記憶體或晶片產品。在這場AI的競爭下，以下先說明AI為何如此重要，並試圖從近期事件與美國政府舉動，觀察美國對AI的扶持與布局。

為何AI變成兵家必爭之地：

AI在近幾年的崛起，黃仁勳形容AI是21世紀的工業革命，他認為AI是一場重構生產體系與組織結構的大變革，他將AI分為四個階段：

感知AI：可以讓電腦辨識語言、圖像、聲音、影像等能力，當初在2012年時深度學習之父辛頓組成團隊，利用輝達的GPU訓練出AlexNet模型，並在ImageNet視覺辨識競賽中拔得頭籌，證明GPU的運算遠勝於CPU，故在2012年被黃仁勳視為AI的關鍵年，且輝達的GPU硬體是奠定AI世代的基礎。
生成AI：這是目前最熱門的，除了可以理解，更可以生成文字、圖像、影音或翻譯等，具有創造新內容的能力，但也隱含製造假資訊的可能性，聊天機器人可與使用者互動，並在使用者提供的資訊下學習與訓練模型，提供使用者在既有資訊下的結論，包含OpenAI推出的ChatGPT、Google的Gemini與中國的Deepseek等都屬於生成式AI的範疇。
推理AI：這是目前如火如荼在發展的「AI 代理 (AI Agent)」，除了有感知與生成的能力，更可自主且獨立的完成指令，與聊天機器人不同的地方，使用者不需要指導AI給予相關的資訊，使用AI代理只需一個指令，AI會自行理解問題、分解處理問題的步驟，自行搜尋資料或使用工具分析後，給使用者高品質的結論，目前最知名的AI代理應用是AutoGPT，微軟的Copilot則是以個人化為主，協助個人提高生產力與效率。
實體AI：也稱為物理AI，同樣是目前正在發展的部分，實體AI是結合前面三個階段的能力，包含辨識、生成、自我思考與自我學習，讓模型透過真實與生成的數據理解現實世界的規律，例如慣性、摩擦、因果關係，且有物體恆存的概念，即東西不會憑空消失，預判可能會往哪個方向或出現在何處，AI從虛擬轉為實體，將辨識、推理、生成整合，並以機器人作為載體，目前輝達推出的Cosmos AI正朝這方向發展。

AI的發展在現代人口老化與少子化的衝擊下，顯得至關重要，因為一旦機器人成功問世，擁有自我思考與學習且可執行的機器人將取代人力，成為勞力密集的替代品，這也是川普政策下的製造業回流美國，解決人力荒的強大後盾，由於美國是世界最大的消費市場，中國則是世界最大的生產商，在AI與自動化的趨勢下，製造業的人力可望獲得解決，有效降低對低階勞工與合法或非法移民的勞力依賴，AI將往輔助人類的方向發展，變成只需要能使用AI或機器人的技術人員，將產能非常可觀的製造業遷回美國，可以不使製造業的肥水不落外人田，讓美國達成世界最大的消費市場與生產商是川普的政策期許。

AI發展關係到一個國家的生產力與國力，牽一髮而動全身，擁有利於發展AI的基礎設施成為重點，建造資料中心所需的電力與水資源在AI強大的耗能下，是影響能不能最快發展出能取代人力的關鍵，故擁有AI基礎設施的國家將有能力穩定生產智慧，從生成式AI至代理AI，至未來人形機器人、邊緣運算、自駕車，皆是以AI晶片為基礎的延伸，由此可見，AI晶片的技術成為中美AI科技競賽中的關鍵性，美國因此將輝達在中國市場的AI晶片H20列為管制晶片，需取得許可證才可出口至中國；然而，從美國舉辦的AI未來政策聽證會中，超微執行長蘇姿丰曾表示，中國雖因限制而無法取得最先進的晶片，但她認為中國可透過其他方式發展AI，中國與美國在AI領域上的差距不相上下，隨時可能被超越，故AI晶片也變成兵家必爭之地。

美國近期對AI發展的支持

美國是目前發展AI最領先的國家，輝達從GPU到Hopper、Blackwell，皆深深地影響AI進展的里程碑，從各種跡象看出美國政府有意鼓勵輝達作為美國發展AI的主要動力，第一，在輝達的AI晶片生產上，由於輝達主要是設計和銷售GPU的無廠半導體公司，與晶圓代工廠台積電有30多年的合作經驗，台積電除了是輝達的重要夥伴，也是美國許多科技公司的重要夥伴，作為實現美國MAGA的理念，說服台積電在美擴大投資，讓輝達等晶片設計公司在量產AI晶片時可更順利；第二，雖然政府限制輝達的中國市場，讓輝達因此在今年Q1認列55億美元的費用，但美國與沙烏地阿拉伯合作建立當地的AI基礎建設，並放寬對中東的AI出口管制，作為中東主權基金投資逾1兆美元在美國的承諾交換，同時也防止中東轉向中國供應商發展AI，與沙國的合作為輝達打開AI晶片銷售通路，黃仁勳表示即將供應超過1.8萬顆GB300 Blackwell晶片給沙國的AI新創公司Humain，無獨有偶，超微、亞馬遜與思科也宣布將投入數十億至百億不等的資金，提供資料中心晶片與AI基礎設施。

川普近期的舉動對於AI產業不僅提供量產的支援，也打開銷售的通路，讓AI在美國與其他國家發揚光大，黃仁勳在今年Computex演說上表示，對於輝達未來的發展方向從「產品導向」轉為「生態導向」，將公司定位為AI基礎建設公司，用半客製化的方式，協助全球推動AI基礎建設為目的；另外，除了輝達在推動各地的主權AI，OpenAI近日也宣布將與美國政府合作推出「OpenAI for Countries」，以ChatGPT為核心，推動民主AI並提供各國建立在地化的AI基礎設施與解決方案。

總結

美國未來AI的發展方向建議：

中美在AI領域中相互競爭，美國用打壓對手的方式企圖保持領先地位，黃仁勳也罕見對美國限制晶片銷往中國的看法，認為打壓與限制是短視的，除了造成輝達損失55億美元，更放棄中國市場150億美元的銷貨收入，對政府而言也放棄約30億美元的稅收收入，從長期來看反而助長中國發展本土的AI產業，因為更多中國企業採用本土AI晶片，讓硬軟體能更加精進，與美國想保持領先的理念背道而馳，唯有加速AI技術全球化與依靠創新，才能讓美國在AI領域獲勝。

投資人對AI發展的布局選擇：

在AI發展的中期，投資人可以從未來發展的方向搶搭AI概念股的選股布局，黃仁勳在Computex高喊「機器人是未來的經濟核心」，短期發展人形機器人的概念股，感知外界環境的變化以及理解物理世界的研發是可布局的範圍，例如感測廠的原相(3227)與鏡頭廠的大立光(3008)、亞光(3019)；長期在擴展AI應用的發展上，輝達(NVDA)的新架構NVLink Fusion可利於AI擴散，首度讓客製化的ASIC晶片與輝達生態系的晶片串接，聯發科(2454)是輝達的首批合作夥伴，並同時合作雲端開發者的小型個人AI超級電腦DGX Spark，聯發科為其CPU開發，輝達與聯發科的合作可做為半客製化AI基礎設施的基礎，布局下一步輝達發展的定位。